Jayson and Dirk

Jayson Tatum was three months old when Dirk Nowitzki was drafted in 1998, but the first playoff run to the Finals for each player is strikingly similar. Consider:

ROUND 1:

2006 Dirk sweeps Memphis, 31.25 pts/game.

2022 Tatum sweeps Brooklyn, 29.5 pts/game.

ROUND 2:

2006 Dirk beats defending champion Spurs in 7 on 27.1 pts/game.

2022 Tatum beats defending champion Bucks in 7 on 27.6 pts/game.

ROUND 3:

2006 Dirk beats Phoenix in 6 on 28 pts/game.

2022 Tatum beats Miami in 7 on 25 pts/game.

FINALS (First 5 games):

2006 Dirk down 3-2 on 21.6 pts/game (37.3% FG)

2022 Tatum down 3-2 on 23.2 pts/game (36.7% FG)

In the playoffs as a whole, both players had signature moments. Dirk had a game-saving drive in the closing seconds to force game 7 overtime in San Antonio, then a round later dropped 50 points on Phoenix in a comeback win that helped swing that series. In game 5 of the finals, Dirk hit a fall-away jumper over Shaq to give the Mavericks a one-point lead with 9 seconds left in overtime in Miami. (Amazing clutch shot, but his team lost, so no one cares!) Meanwhile, this year, Tatum had a spinning layup to beat Brooklyn at the buzzer, and then scored 46 in Milwaukee to force a game 7 in that series.

In the Finals, both Dirk and Tatum were up 2-1, then down 3-2. Both got pushed around a bit, were sometimes too passive on offense, and had subpar production. Tatum is a much better defender, Dirk was a better rebounder and more dominant offensive presence. 

What about the next game? In game 6 of the Mavs series, Dirk went for 29/15/2 on solid shooting for the game, but in the 4th quarter he missed all his FG attempts. In the closing moments of the game, with Miami up 3, Dwyane Wade missed back-to-back free throws with a chance to seal the championship by making one. (Stunning choke, but he won, so no one cares!) Then Jason Terry had a chance to force overtime with a good look at a three-pointer, but missed at the buzzer.

Dirk lost his series, and had to wait five years for revenge against Miami. It should be fun to see whether Jayson Tatum meets the same fate as Dirk on Thursday, or whether the Celtics find a way to get a win.

Rebounding

I really enjoy (and recommend) the Locked on Mavericks podcast, where Isaac Harris has been helpfully hammering home a counter-intuitive point: the Mavericks don’t need to “win the rebounding battle” to win playoff games.

It’s true the Mavericks out-rebounded Golden State in their game 5 win, and certainly rebounds help you win. But going back to the game log, consider: Dallas beat Utah in games where they were out-rebounded by 19 and 11, and they beat Phoenix while being out-rebounded by 9, 7, and 6. Until this week, the only wins where the Mavericks out-rebounded their opponents were blow-outs, where terrible shooting by the opponent handed Dallas a lot of extra boards. It’s obviously better if the Mavericks are respectable on the boards, but I’m not sure winning the rebounding battle is even a team goal.

It’s not a surprise that the TNT studio guys are big on rebounding, because it feels honorable and gutsy to go fight the ball away from the other team. But if the Mavericks are a better team when their guys stay at their shooter’s spots around the three-point line, and then get back on defense instead of crashing the offensive glass, then it’s really a matter of balancing out your best chance to win, not “surrendering” by not fighting more for the boards.

Speaking of rebounding, can the Mavericks get back into the series? Everyone is rightly pointing out that the Warriors haven’t lost at home this postseason. That matters, but only to a degree. Streaks of all kinds can get broken at surprising times, or streaks can last longer than you expect. Against Phoenix last series, the home team won every game—until game 7, when the Mavericks won on the road. Last year against the Clippers, the road team won every game—until game 7, when the Mavericks lost on the road. No one thought Chris Paul would have four bad games in a row last series, but he did. No one would have bet on 5 consecutive blowouts in the Eastern Finals between Boston and Miami, but here we are.

I think the sports pundits are right that Dallas’s success or failure really comes down to three-point shooting. If the Warriors get hot in a game where the Mavericks are cold, Dallas is probably sunk. A different team might fight through it with tough interior defense, offensive rebounding, and the like. Dallas isn’t really built that way, so plan B isn’t a strong one.

Variability with 3s means you might lose to an inferior team, but also means you might beat a better team. The Mavericks’ shooting isn’t fool’s gold: they’re legit, and may have won game 3 if they had just shot average instead of terribly. To pull off the crazy series comeback, the Mavericks would need three more games in a row where they shoot what they’re capable of shooting. It’s exceedingly unlikely, but it does mean every individual game is winnable.

Betting even money, you have to pick the Warriors tonight, certainly for the series. But at least for tonight, you never know. 

Luka All-NBA First Team

Luka made first-team all NBA again, tied for second-most voting points! While that’s true, it’s not quite as impressive as it sounds. Forgive me while I geek out over the numbers a bit, to see how it’s a bit more complicated.

Check out the nba.com list. Much better than espn’s awkward attempt to give all the names in story form.

Podcasters have talked all season about the problem of Jokic and Embiid both being top-three in MVP voting, while they generally can’t both end up on first-team all-NBA because they’re both centers. If you look at the numbers, that also affects Luka’s standing in the whole process. 

To put Luka’s numbers in perspective, imagine voters could have voted for any combination of players, regardless of position. Virtually every voter would have chosen both Jokic and Embiid for first team, which would move both of them up next to Giannis and drop Luka to 4th.

Then there’s also a trickle-down effect of the logjam at center. Since Jokic and Embiid totaled 145 first-place votes, at least 45 voters placed one or the other of them as a first-team forward. If those had all been votes for center, and all the forward votes went to actual forwards, where would the other 45 first-place forward votes have gone? Looks like mostly Tatum, and maybe a few for Durant and Lebron. If 40 or more of them had gone to Tatum, he would have passed Luka in the voting as well, bumping Luka to 5th.

Luka does have one other point in his favor: outside of the Giannis/Jokic/Embiid trio, Luka was the only player to be on first or second team of every single ballot. That could mean something, or it could mean that, say, 4 voters were going to place Durant and Lebron on their first team no matter how many games they missed, so the forward position was over-crowded and Tatum got bumped to third team on four ballots. There aren’t any sacred cows like that among guards for Luka to compete with right now.

None of that denigrates Luka’s stature as the best guard in the NBA this year, an astonishing achievement. I'm not decrying any unfairness, just giving a little context. And also embracing another reminder that in *any* context––sports, politics, science, whatever––a quick glance at numbers doesn’t always tell the whole truth.

Still enjoying this playoff run. And while we’re here, let’s all take a moment to thank God that Sacramento took Marvin Bagley III.

WCF Game 3: Warriors win 109-100

This has been a fun playoff run, but it’s looking like a long shot for the season to make it to next weekend. Some sad thoughts after tonight’s game:

No-look bummer: Tonight at 6:40 in the first quarter Luka made a ridiculous no-look pass over his head, from under the basket to Finney-Smith in the corner. And he missed. My count may be off, but I think that may be the third over-the-head no-look pass for a missed three this series.

Can’t get real stops: The Mavericks’ “I hope you miss!” defense is clearly not getting the job done down the stretch of these games. The Warriors have missed some late-game shots, for sure, but it feels like they’re getting good looks every time, while mostly forcing the Mavericks into tougher shots. As Charles Barkley keeps saying, if you hit enough threes, it might not matter. And for two series, that’s what the Mavericks did. But are they good enough to do that four series in a row? Doesn’t look that way.

Missing Hardaway: Seems to me the Mavericks are really missing Tim Hardaway Jr. right now. On nights he gets hot, he could steal you a playoff game. But more imporant is that with him out,. the Mavericks have to give rotation minutes to guys who really shouldn’t be in a playoff rotation, at least with the Mavericks’ mix of players: Powell, Bertans, Ntilikina, Green. Each of those guys has some valuable skills, but each one has liabilities so big that they ultimately hurt you most nights. But without THJ, you don’t really have an alternative. 

A Team of Specialists: The other problem is that the Mavericks don’t have a single two-way player on their roster. Every player is either in the game for their offense (Luke, Brunson, Dinwiddie) or their defense (Bullock, Finney-Smith, Kleber). It’s a big strength that those three defenders can be killer three-point shooters on a good night, which makes them a nice fit with Luka. It does give the Mavericks a chance to win pretty much any game. But can you imagine if you had a guy with, say, Brunson’s offense and Bullock’s defense? Then you could have three offensive players AND three defensive players on the floor at the same time. Instead, the Mavericks are forced to choose between 2 and 3, or else 3 and 2. That’s fine until you face a team like the Warriors, where Wiggins can guard, hit the 3, and get to the rim. If you hit your threes, you might win anyway. Without them, it’s really tough to compete against he best for 7 games.

Fun Fact

The NBA names fifteen players to its three All-NBA teams (1st, 2nd, and 3rd) each year. This year exactly three teams had two players among those fifteen, and as it happens those players were all in the top ten.

The Mavericks played and beat all three of those teams in the playoffs:

OKC: Durant (1st team) and Westbrook (2nd team).
LAL: Kobe (1st team) and Gasol (2nd team).
Miami: LeBron (1st team) and Wade (2nd team).

Or another way to put it: of the nine All-NBA first- and second-teamers aside from Dirk, the Mavericks in this playoff run played and beat six of them.

Yes We Did

(Okay, so I have to figure this title for a blog post is going to be used 600 times in the next two days, but I’m riding with it anyway...)

I have to say, with the Mavericks winning the championship, it’s feels like a major anticlimax. My wife even commented that I didn’t giggle near the end of this game like I did in some of the other games of this series and earlier in the playoffs.

It’s true, and I think that’s because the best parts of a championship season are all the moments where you think you’re going to win it all, even though it hasn’t happened yet. Once the final moment comes, it’s really more of a relief––that the team didn’t blow such a great opportunity––than anything.

Lots of the press have commented recently, and I think they’re right, that we spend so much time discussing legacy and story and greatness and such while the games are happening, that there’s not much left to say once the season is over. We’ve spent the past two weeks obsessing over the possibility of the Mavericks reversing the 2006 Finals with poetic justice, and drooling over how Dirk can finally cement his place as an all-time great.

(I can’t resist a couple of stats to throw in: with the last two wins against the Heat, the Mavericks now have a winning record in the playoffs over the past 11 seasons, going 65-63. This playoff run also means they have now won more playoff series than they’ve lost over that span as well, going 13-10 in series. Not counting tonight’s game, Dirk has career playoff averages of 26.0 points (on 46.5% shooting) and 10.4 rebounds per game. But again, we already knew about Dirk’s numbers; the championship just means no one can say they’re empty numbers anymore.)

I’ll celebrate the championship, but what I hope I remember more is what it was like to watch all the games along the way: the relief of winning game 5 against the Blazers after blowing game 4, and JJ Barea hitting the and-one with Andrew Bynum’s flagrant foul in the sweep of the Lakers (see the website didthelakersgetswept.com), and laughing through Dirk’s absurd 12-for-15 shooting in game 1 against the Thunder, then watching with disbelief as the Mavericks erased a 15-point Thunder lead in game 4 of that series, and then watching in even greater disbelief as the Mavericks did the same thing to the Heat with the season practically on the line in game 2 of the Finals.

Forget espn classic, which I don’t watch anyway. We got to see the games live, and it was as much fun as you can really hope to have watching TV, plus we got to crash facebook after every game and celebrate with the community, even though my Mavs fan friends are all over the globe. When Dirk hit a big shot, this series, I was never surprised; when he kept missing during the first half tonight, I never worried about whether he would get his touch back. When he hit 10 points for the fourth quarter *again* tonight, it was just gravy. The missed shot at the end of game 3 was a genuine shock, and that says something about a player.

From here on, everything changes. Next year (if the season happens), we get to just enjoy what comes without all the angst and doubt. Unless the Mavericks can pull off another year like this, other teams will always have longer dynasties and more title banners. But that’s the great thing about a championship: this year is all that matters. For this year, Dirk was the best when the game was on the line. For this year, no deficit was too big to race back from. For this year, not a single team could blow the Mavericks out of a single playoff game. For this year, Terry was fearless (and money) when the biggest games were on the line. For this year, JJ Barea was a crunch-time contributor in the deciding game of the season. For this year, our team was better, and played better.

As my wife posted on facebook tonight, Thank God it’s finally over. I think we can all use a little rest.

On the Line

One of the great things about the playoffs is that you get to see how people play when their backs are to the wall.

One of the best places to see this is when a team is leading the series by a single game (1-0, 2-1, or 3-2), as opposed to when it's tied or when a team is leading by two or three games. The reason is, of course, that the outcome of the game leads to such a big difference: either the series will be tied, or else someone will have a two-game lead, which is tough to overcome.

Now of course, in a game 7 you get to see both teams with their backs against the wall, which is a lot of fun. But I think in games like the one tonight, with Miami leading 2-1, you get to find out something even more interesting abuot who these teams are. What I mean is, at least from a fan’s perspective, the game at 2-1 (like the games at 1-0 and 3-2) means more to the team who’s trailing in the series than it does to the team who’s winning.

A few years back I wrote a post about how the Mavericks under Dirk had won every game 7 (or game 5 in a five-game series) that they had played. (The same is still true today, since they haven’t played any games 7’s since I wrote that post.) That looks impressive, until you reflect that the *best* teams don’t have to play very many game 7’s, because they put away their opponents quickly. So most seasons, when the Mavericks are the better team, it still often takes them the full seven games to finish a series. When they’re the lesser team, they never stretch the series to the limit.

Now let’s go back to the 2-1 series. What we find out tonight is whether Miami is good enough to beat the Mavericks even when Dallas *has* to win the game, while Miami doesn’t. It’s more interesting than a game 7 because we don’t just see who’s better –– we see who wants it more. If Dallas can win big tonight, we’ll know they play well when they’re desperate. But if Miami can win big tonight, we’ll know they can keep their effort up even if they’re not desperate.

However, there’s a catch. If the game is close, luck comes into play. Dirk could have made that shot at the end of game 3, just like he could have missed his layup at the end of game 2. Wade could have hit his desperation heave at the end of game 2, or the refs could have called a phantom foul and given him three shots on the play. These things happen. In other words, this series could easily be 2-1 Dallas or 3-0 Miami, and some of it depends on luck.

So then there’s tonight. Dallas needs the win more, and we’re playing at home. And so I think you really can say, that if Miami beats us convincingly tonight, they’ll prove that they deserve to win the series –– and the resulting 3-1 lead will mean they surely will win the series.

Of course you hope for the blow-out win. It would mean that Miami can be beaten soundly, and not just on a fluke. You willingly settle for another close win (or three more close wins), because even a championship won with a little luck is still a real championship.

But if Dallas loses another close one tonight, it will be extremely hard to swallow as a fan, because it will feel like the series could have swung the other way so easily. If that happened, we would probably lose game 6 in a blowout, and it would look like Miami was simply a lot better, but I don’t think that would necessarily be the case. In a 3-1 series, at least from a fan’s perspective, the trailing team is likely to lose heart, which helps the leading team smell blood and play with more energy to finish them off.

So you worry about the close loss. Then it’s just more “what if” piled on the list with Dirk’s WCF knee injury in 2003, the 2006 Finals, and the Golden State upset. As Mavericks fans, we’ve had enough “what if.”

But what if we win tonight?