Rebounding

I really enjoy (and recommend) the Locked on Mavericks podcast, where Isaac Harris has been helpfully hammering home a counter-intuitive point: the Mavericks don’t need to “win the rebounding battle” to win playoff games.

It’s true the Mavericks out-rebounded Golden State in their game 5 win, and certainly rebounds help you win. But going back to the game log, consider: Dallas beat Utah in games where they were out-rebounded by 19 and 11, and they beat Phoenix while being out-rebounded by 9, 7, and 6. Until this week, the only wins where the Mavericks out-rebounded their opponents were blow-outs, where terrible shooting by the opponent handed Dallas a lot of extra boards. It’s obviously better if the Mavericks are respectable on the boards, but I’m not sure winning the rebounding battle is even a team goal.

It’s not a surprise that the TNT studio guys are big on rebounding, because it feels honorable and gutsy to go fight the ball away from the other team. But if the Mavericks are a better team when their guys stay at their shooter’s spots around the three-point line, and then get back on defense instead of crashing the offensive glass, then it’s really a matter of balancing out your best chance to win, not “surrendering” by not fighting more for the boards.

Speaking of rebounding, can the Mavericks get back into the series? Everyone is rightly pointing out that the Warriors haven’t lost at home this postseason. That matters, but only to a degree. Streaks of all kinds can get broken at surprising times, or streaks can last longer than you expect. Against Phoenix last series, the home team won every game—until game 7, when the Mavericks won on the road. Last year against the Clippers, the road team won every game—until game 7, when the Mavericks lost on the road. No one thought Chris Paul would have four bad games in a row last series, but he did. No one would have bet on 5 consecutive blowouts in the Eastern Finals between Boston and Miami, but here we are.

I think the sports pundits are right that Dallas’s success or failure really comes down to three-point shooting. If the Warriors get hot in a game where the Mavericks are cold, Dallas is probably sunk. A different team might fight through it with tough interior defense, offensive rebounding, and the like. Dallas isn’t really built that way, so plan B isn’t a strong one.

Variability with 3s means you might lose to an inferior team, but also means you might beat a better team. The Mavericks’ shooting isn’t fool’s gold: they’re legit, and may have won game 3 if they had just shot average instead of terribly. To pull off the crazy series comeback, the Mavericks would need three more games in a row where they shoot what they’re capable of shooting. It’s exceedingly unlikely, but it does mean every individual game is winnable.

Betting even money, you have to pick the Warriors tonight, certainly for the series. But at least for tonight, you never know. 

Luka All-NBA First Team

Luka made first-team all NBA again, tied for second-most voting points! While that’s true, it’s not quite as impressive as it sounds. Forgive me while I geek out over the numbers a bit, to see how it’s a bit more complicated.

Check out the nba.com list. Much better than espn’s awkward attempt to give all the names in story form.

Podcasters have talked all season about the problem of Jokic and Embiid both being top-three in MVP voting, while they generally can’t both end up on first-team all-NBA because they’re both centers. If you look at the numbers, that also affects Luka’s standing in the whole process. 

To put Luka’s numbers in perspective, imagine voters could have voted for any combination of players, regardless of position. Virtually every voter would have chosen both Jokic and Embiid for first team, which would move both of them up next to Giannis and drop Luka to 4th.

Then there’s also a trickle-down effect of the logjam at center. Since Jokic and Embiid totaled 145 first-place votes, at least 45 voters placed one or the other of them as a first-team forward. If those had all been votes for center, and all the forward votes went to actual forwards, where would the other 45 first-place forward votes have gone? Looks like mostly Tatum, and maybe a few for Durant and Lebron. If 40 or more of them had gone to Tatum, he would have passed Luka in the voting as well, bumping Luka to 5th.

Luka does have one other point in his favor: outside of the Giannis/Jokic/Embiid trio, Luka was the only player to be on first or second team of every single ballot. That could mean something, or it could mean that, say, 4 voters were going to place Durant and Lebron on their first team no matter how many games they missed, so the forward position was over-crowded and Tatum got bumped to third team on four ballots. There aren’t any sacred cows like that among guards for Luka to compete with right now.

None of that denigrates Luka’s stature as the best guard in the NBA this year, an astonishing achievement. I'm not decrying any unfairness, just giving a little context. And also embracing another reminder that in *any* context––sports, politics, science, whatever––a quick glance at numbers doesn’t always tell the whole truth.

Still enjoying this playoff run. And while we’re here, let’s all take a moment to thank God that Sacramento took Marvin Bagley III.

WCF Game 3: Warriors win 109-100

This has been a fun playoff run, but it’s looking like a long shot for the season to make it to next weekend. Some sad thoughts after tonight’s game:

No-look bummer: Tonight at 6:40 in the first quarter Luka made a ridiculous no-look pass over his head, from under the basket to Finney-Smith in the corner. And he missed. My count may be off, but I think that may be the third over-the-head no-look pass for a missed three this series.

Can’t get real stops: The Mavericks’ “I hope you miss!” defense is clearly not getting the job done down the stretch of these games. The Warriors have missed some late-game shots, for sure, but it feels like they’re getting good looks every time, while mostly forcing the Mavericks into tougher shots. As Charles Barkley keeps saying, if you hit enough threes, it might not matter. And for two series, that’s what the Mavericks did. But are they good enough to do that four series in a row? Doesn’t look that way.

Missing Hardaway: Seems to me the Mavericks are really missing Tim Hardaway Jr. right now. On nights he gets hot, he could steal you a playoff game. But more imporant is that with him out,. the Mavericks have to give rotation minutes to guys who really shouldn’t be in a playoff rotation, at least with the Mavericks’ mix of players: Powell, Bertans, Ntilikina, Green. Each of those guys has some valuable skills, but each one has liabilities so big that they ultimately hurt you most nights. But without THJ, you don’t really have an alternative. 

A Team of Specialists: The other problem is that the Mavericks don’t have a single two-way player on their roster. Every player is either in the game for their offense (Luke, Brunson, Dinwiddie) or their defense (Bullock, Finney-Smith, Kleber). It’s a big strength that those three defenders can be killer three-point shooters on a good night, which makes them a nice fit with Luka. It does give the Mavericks a chance to win pretty much any game. But can you imagine if you had a guy with, say, Brunson’s offense and Bullock’s defense? Then you could have three offensive players AND three defensive players on the floor at the same time. Instead, the Mavericks are forced to choose between 2 and 3, or else 3 and 2. That’s fine until you face a team like the Warriors, where Wiggins can guard, hit the 3, and get to the rim. If you hit your threes, you might win anyway. Without them, it’s really tough to compete against he best for 7 games.