Rebounding

I really enjoy (and recommend) the Locked on Mavericks podcast, where Isaac Harris has been helpfully hammering home a counter-intuitive point: the Mavericks don’t need to “win the rebounding battle” to win playoff games.

It’s true the Mavericks out-rebounded Golden State in their game 5 win, and certainly rebounds help you win. But going back to the game log, consider: Dallas beat Utah in games where they were out-rebounded by 19 and 11, and they beat Phoenix while being out-rebounded by 9, 7, and 6. Until this week, the only wins where the Mavericks out-rebounded their opponents were blow-outs, where terrible shooting by the opponent handed Dallas a lot of extra boards. It’s obviously better if the Mavericks are respectable on the boards, but I’m not sure winning the rebounding battle is even a team goal.

It’s not a surprise that the TNT studio guys are big on rebounding, because it feels honorable and gutsy to go fight the ball away from the other team. But if the Mavericks are a better team when their guys stay at their shooter’s spots around the three-point line, and then get back on defense instead of crashing the offensive glass, then it’s really a matter of balancing out your best chance to win, not “surrendering” by not fighting more for the boards.

Speaking of rebounding, can the Mavericks get back into the series? Everyone is rightly pointing out that the Warriors haven’t lost at home this postseason. That matters, but only to a degree. Streaks of all kinds can get broken at surprising times, or streaks can last longer than you expect. Against Phoenix last series, the home team won every game—until game 7, when the Mavericks won on the road. Last year against the Clippers, the road team won every game—until game 7, when the Mavericks lost on the road. No one thought Chris Paul would have four bad games in a row last series, but he did. No one would have bet on 5 consecutive blowouts in the Eastern Finals between Boston and Miami, but here we are.

I think the sports pundits are right that Dallas’s success or failure really comes down to three-point shooting. If the Warriors get hot in a game where the Mavericks are cold, Dallas is probably sunk. A different team might fight through it with tough interior defense, offensive rebounding, and the like. Dallas isn’t really built that way, so plan B isn’t a strong one.

Variability with 3s means you might lose to an inferior team, but also means you might beat a better team. The Mavericks’ shooting isn’t fool’s gold: they’re legit, and may have won game 3 if they had just shot average instead of terribly. To pull off the crazy series comeback, the Mavericks would need three more games in a row where they shoot what they’re capable of shooting. It’s exceedingly unlikely, but it does mean every individual game is winnable.

Betting even money, you have to pick the Warriors tonight, certainly for the series. But at least for tonight, you never know.