They Did This to Me Once Before

I loved watching Jason Kidd play basketball.

The picture above is from a souvenir towel my brother and I got at the Mavs’ opening night in November 1994: Jason Kidd’s first game in the NBA. I felt so honored to be there, everyone could see Kidd was special.

The Mavericks got the win with the most Jason-Kidd game imaginable: 11 assists, 9 rebounds, and 10 points on just 30% shooting. But though Kidd’s scoring wasn’t all-nba, his playmaking and style were breathtaking. Smart passes, trick passes, brilliant passes. And his motor: when I watched games I liked to say, “Kidd wants the ball” when he would chase down yet another loose ball. He had flaws, but I just loved the way he played.

And the heights of his game, when he was at his best, made fan memories forever. As I posted about years ago, Kidd starred in the greatest regular season game I saw for almost 30 years, hitting three 3-pointers as part of the Mavs scoring 14 points in the last minute of overtime to pull off a crazy comeback and a 157-147 2OT win against the Rockets. Kidd ended up with 38/11/10 including 8 three-pointers, which was a truly wild number in those days, especially for a guy who typically couldn’t shoot.

Kidd wasn’t a perfect player, but the thrill in watching him was what made basketball worth watching.

Then two years later the Mavs traded him, suddenly and shockingly, in an inexplicable move that broke my heart as a fan. How could they do it? Apparently Kidd didn’t get along with the coach (Jim Cleamons?!), and had feuds with his star teammates. My sense is that he wasn’t the greatest guy when he was young. But to cut ties with him when he was just 23? What were they thinking?

The parallels with the Luka trade today are obvious, and similarly nauseating. Luka’s in a different stratosphere than Kidd: where Kidd was an all-NBA guy, Luka has the chance to become a top-ten all-time player. I do not exaggerate to say that I doubt the Mavericks will have another player as good as Luka in my lifetime.

As with Kidd, Luka has his warts. I tell my kids that I love watching Luka, but I don’t want them acting like him on the court. But the thrills when he’s at his best are the reason we watch basketball. He has multiple playoff buzzer-beating game winners, and he’s already won at least two playoff series that led the other team to rethink their entire roster and trade top players. The game-seven win at Phoenix three years ago was one of the wildest, most fun games I’ve ever seen.

And I was lucky enough to be there in person at AAC with my brother, my father, and my sons, for maybe the greatest regular-season game anyone has ever played. Against the Knicks on Dec 27, 2022, Luka went for 61/21/10 in the OT win, capping a 9-point comeback in the last 27 seconds of regulation by intentionally missing a free throw, getting the offensive rebound, and putting it in just before the buzzer to force overtime. It was just stunning, the kind of thrill that makes basketball worth watching.

When it comes to trades, I know organizations have their reasons. I know Kidd wasn’t the greatest guy, I know Luka isn’t either. And there are limits to the kind of person I would cheer for. 

But both of these were young guys, who just needed to grow up, and I *loved* watching both of them play basketball. After the Kidd trade, I had some consolation when Dallas lucked into Dirk Nowitzki in the 1999 draft, so for two decades I had someone worth cheering for. But Jason Kidd went on to lead the Nets to the Finals twice before Dallas got him back late in his career, and I was always sad that I had to miss my favorite player’s prime because the Mavs traded him away.

Will there be consolation after Luka? I doubt it. Even if the Mavs won a title in the next couple years before Davis and Kyrie fade, I’d still think they would have won more with Luka. But more than that, Luka brings thrills to the game that these other players just don’t match.

This is why I found myself literally going through stages of grief today: denial, anger, bargaining. That's wild, but it's not silly: following our team is not "just a game," it's countless hours I spend with my sons, and my brother, and friends, loving our team together. Following the mavs is nowhere near the most important thing in my life, but it's got real weight and value, it's part of the good life when we keep things in perspective. And so I do grieve: how many thrills with my boys will I miss out on, games that just won't be as fun as they would have been if we still had Luka.

All day today I keep thinking that GM Nico Harrison just fundamentally misunderstands what it means to be a basketball fan. The song Halleluka wasn’t just silly, it captured the moment of landing Doncic so well because Mavericks fans realized we were seeing something special, something that many franchises have never enjoyed in their history.

I loved watching Jason Kidd play basketball. I loved watching Dirk play basketball. And I loved watching Luka play basketball. For one of the three, the Mavs did the fans right, and we got to give Dirk all the fan-love we had. With the other two, we were robbed by foolish front offices. I don’t know when the next chance like this will come along.

Jayson and Dirk

Jayson Tatum was three months old when Dirk Nowitzki was drafted in 1998, but the first playoff run to the Finals for each player is strikingly similar. Consider:

ROUND 1:

2006 Dirk sweeps Memphis, 31.25 pts/game.

2022 Tatum sweeps Brooklyn, 29.5 pts/game.

ROUND 2:

2006 Dirk beats defending champion Spurs in 7 on 27.1 pts/game.

2022 Tatum beats defending champion Bucks in 7 on 27.6 pts/game.

ROUND 3:

2006 Dirk beats Phoenix in 6 on 28 pts/game.

2022 Tatum beats Miami in 7 on 25 pts/game.

FINALS (First 5 games):

2006 Dirk down 3-2 on 21.6 pts/game (37.3% FG)

2022 Tatum down 3-2 on 23.2 pts/game (36.7% FG)

In the playoffs as a whole, both players had signature moments. Dirk had a game-saving drive in the closing seconds to force game 7 overtime in San Antonio, then a round later dropped 50 points on Phoenix in a comeback win that helped swing that series. In game 5 of the finals, Dirk hit a fall-away jumper over Shaq to give the Mavericks a one-point lead with 9 seconds left in overtime in Miami. (Amazing clutch shot, but his team lost, so no one cares!) Meanwhile, this year, Tatum had a spinning layup to beat Brooklyn at the buzzer, and then scored 46 in Milwaukee to force a game 7 in that series.

In the Finals, both Dirk and Tatum were up 2-1, then down 3-2. Both got pushed around a bit, were sometimes too passive on offense, and had subpar production. Tatum is a much better defender, Dirk was a better rebounder and more dominant offensive presence. 

What about the next game? In game 6 of the Mavs series, Dirk went for 29/15/2 on solid shooting for the game, but in the 4th quarter he missed all his FG attempts. In the closing moments of the game, with Miami up 3, Dwyane Wade missed back-to-back free throws with a chance to seal the championship by making one. (Stunning choke, but he won, so no one cares!) Then Jason Terry had a chance to force overtime with a good look at a three-pointer, but missed at the buzzer.

Dirk lost his series, and had to wait five years for revenge against Miami. It should be fun to see whether Jayson Tatum meets the same fate as Dirk on Thursday, or whether the Celtics find a way to get a win.

Rebounding

I really enjoy (and recommend) the Locked on Mavericks podcast, where Isaac Harris has been helpfully hammering home a counter-intuitive point: the Mavericks don’t need to “win the rebounding battle” to win playoff games.

It’s true the Mavericks out-rebounded Golden State in their game 5 win, and certainly rebounds help you win. But going back to the game log, consider: Dallas beat Utah in games where they were out-rebounded by 19 and 11, and they beat Phoenix while being out-rebounded by 9, 7, and 6. Until this week, the only wins where the Mavericks out-rebounded their opponents were blow-outs, where terrible shooting by the opponent handed Dallas a lot of extra boards. It’s obviously better if the Mavericks are respectable on the boards, but I’m not sure winning the rebounding battle is even a team goal.

It’s not a surprise that the TNT studio guys are big on rebounding, because it feels honorable and gutsy to go fight the ball away from the other team. But if the Mavericks are a better team when their guys stay at their shooter’s spots around the three-point line, and then get back on defense instead of crashing the offensive glass, then it’s really a matter of balancing out your best chance to win, not “surrendering” by not fighting more for the boards.

Speaking of rebounding, can the Mavericks get back into the series? Everyone is rightly pointing out that the Warriors haven’t lost at home this postseason. That matters, but only to a degree. Streaks of all kinds can get broken at surprising times, or streaks can last longer than you expect. Against Phoenix last series, the home team won every game—until game 7, when the Mavericks won on the road. Last year against the Clippers, the road team won every game—until game 7, when the Mavericks lost on the road. No one thought Chris Paul would have four bad games in a row last series, but he did. No one would have bet on 5 consecutive blowouts in the Eastern Finals between Boston and Miami, but here we are.

I think the sports pundits are right that Dallas’s success or failure really comes down to three-point shooting. If the Warriors get hot in a game where the Mavericks are cold, Dallas is probably sunk. A different team might fight through it with tough interior defense, offensive rebounding, and the like. Dallas isn’t really built that way, so plan B isn’t a strong one.

Variability with 3s means you might lose to an inferior team, but also means you might beat a better team. The Mavericks’ shooting isn’t fool’s gold: they’re legit, and may have won game 3 if they had just shot average instead of terribly. To pull off the crazy series comeback, the Mavericks would need three more games in a row where they shoot what they’re capable of shooting. It’s exceedingly unlikely, but it does mean every individual game is winnable.

Betting even money, you have to pick the Warriors tonight, certainly for the series. But at least for tonight, you never know. 

Luka All-NBA First Team

Luka made first-team all NBA again, tied for second-most voting points! While that’s true, it’s not quite as impressive as it sounds. Forgive me while I geek out over the numbers a bit, to see how it’s a bit more complicated.

Check out the nba.com list. Much better than espn’s awkward attempt to give all the names in story form.

Podcasters have talked all season about the problem of Jokic and Embiid both being top-three in MVP voting, while they generally can’t both end up on first-team all-NBA because they’re both centers. If you look at the numbers, that also affects Luka’s standing in the whole process. 

To put Luka’s numbers in perspective, imagine voters could have voted for any combination of players, regardless of position. Virtually every voter would have chosen both Jokic and Embiid for first team, which would move both of them up next to Giannis and drop Luka to 4th.

Then there’s also a trickle-down effect of the logjam at center. Since Jokic and Embiid totaled 145 first-place votes, at least 45 voters placed one or the other of them as a first-team forward. If those had all been votes for center, and all the forward votes went to actual forwards, where would the other 45 first-place forward votes have gone? Looks like mostly Tatum, and maybe a few for Durant and Lebron. If 40 or more of them had gone to Tatum, he would have passed Luka in the voting as well, bumping Luka to 5th.

Luka does have one other point in his favor: outside of the Giannis/Jokic/Embiid trio, Luka was the only player to be on first or second team of every single ballot. That could mean something, or it could mean that, say, 4 voters were going to place Durant and Lebron on their first team no matter how many games they missed, so the forward position was over-crowded and Tatum got bumped to third team on four ballots. There aren’t any sacred cows like that among guards for Luka to compete with right now.

None of that denigrates Luka’s stature as the best guard in the NBA this year, an astonishing achievement. I'm not decrying any unfairness, just giving a little context. And also embracing another reminder that in *any* context––sports, politics, science, whatever––a quick glance at numbers doesn’t always tell the whole truth.

Still enjoying this playoff run. And while we’re here, let’s all take a moment to thank God that Sacramento took Marvin Bagley III.

WCF Game 3: Warriors win 109-100

This has been a fun playoff run, but it’s looking like a long shot for the season to make it to next weekend. Some sad thoughts after tonight’s game:

No-look bummer: Tonight at 6:40 in the first quarter Luka made a ridiculous no-look pass over his head, from under the basket to Finney-Smith in the corner. And he missed. My count may be off, but I think that may be the third over-the-head no-look pass for a missed three this series.

Can’t get real stops: The Mavericks’ “I hope you miss!” defense is clearly not getting the job done down the stretch of these games. The Warriors have missed some late-game shots, for sure, but it feels like they’re getting good looks every time, while mostly forcing the Mavericks into tougher shots. As Charles Barkley keeps saying, if you hit enough threes, it might not matter. And for two series, that’s what the Mavericks did. But are they good enough to do that four series in a row? Doesn’t look that way.

Missing Hardaway: Seems to me the Mavericks are really missing Tim Hardaway Jr. right now. On nights he gets hot, he could steal you a playoff game. But more imporant is that with him out,. the Mavericks have to give rotation minutes to guys who really shouldn’t be in a playoff rotation, at least with the Mavericks’ mix of players: Powell, Bertans, Ntilikina, Green. Each of those guys has some valuable skills, but each one has liabilities so big that they ultimately hurt you most nights. But without THJ, you don’t really have an alternative. 

A Team of Specialists: The other problem is that the Mavericks don’t have a single two-way player on their roster. Every player is either in the game for their offense (Luke, Brunson, Dinwiddie) or their defense (Bullock, Finney-Smith, Kleber). It’s a big strength that those three defenders can be killer three-point shooters on a good night, which makes them a nice fit with Luka. It does give the Mavericks a chance to win pretty much any game. But can you imagine if you had a guy with, say, Brunson’s offense and Bullock’s defense? Then you could have three offensive players AND three defensive players on the floor at the same time. Instead, the Mavericks are forced to choose between 2 and 3, or else 3 and 2. That’s fine until you face a team like the Warriors, where Wiggins can guard, hit the 3, and get to the rim. If you hit your threes, you might win anyway. Without them, it’s really tough to compete against he best for 7 games.

Fun Fact

The NBA names fifteen players to its three All-NBA teams (1st, 2nd, and 3rd) each year. This year exactly three teams had two players among those fifteen, and as it happens those players were all in the top ten.

The Mavericks played and beat all three of those teams in the playoffs:

OKC: Durant (1st team) and Westbrook (2nd team).
LAL: Kobe (1st team) and Gasol (2nd team).
Miami: LeBron (1st team) and Wade (2nd team).

Or another way to put it: of the nine All-NBA first- and second-teamers aside from Dirk, the Mavericks in this playoff run played and beat six of them.

Yes We Did

(Okay, so I have to figure this title for a blog post is going to be used 600 times in the next two days, but I’m riding with it anyway...)

I have to say, with the Mavericks winning the championship, it’s feels like a major anticlimax. My wife even commented that I didn’t giggle near the end of this game like I did in some of the other games of this series and earlier in the playoffs.

It’s true, and I think that’s because the best parts of a championship season are all the moments where you think you’re going to win it all, even though it hasn’t happened yet. Once the final moment comes, it’s really more of a relief––that the team didn’t blow such a great opportunity––than anything.

Lots of the press have commented recently, and I think they’re right, that we spend so much time discussing legacy and story and greatness and such while the games are happening, that there’s not much left to say once the season is over. We’ve spent the past two weeks obsessing over the possibility of the Mavericks reversing the 2006 Finals with poetic justice, and drooling over how Dirk can finally cement his place as an all-time great.

(I can’t resist a couple of stats to throw in: with the last two wins against the Heat, the Mavericks now have a winning record in the playoffs over the past 11 seasons, going 65-63. This playoff run also means they have now won more playoff series than they’ve lost over that span as well, going 13-10 in series. Not counting tonight’s game, Dirk has career playoff averages of 26.0 points (on 46.5% shooting) and 10.4 rebounds per game. But again, we already knew about Dirk’s numbers; the championship just means no one can say they’re empty numbers anymore.)

I’ll celebrate the championship, but what I hope I remember more is what it was like to watch all the games along the way: the relief of winning game 5 against the Blazers after blowing game 4, and JJ Barea hitting the and-one with Andrew Bynum’s flagrant foul in the sweep of the Lakers (see the website didthelakersgetswept.com), and laughing through Dirk’s absurd 12-for-15 shooting in game 1 against the Thunder, then watching with disbelief as the Mavericks erased a 15-point Thunder lead in game 4 of that series, and then watching in even greater disbelief as the Mavericks did the same thing to the Heat with the season practically on the line in game 2 of the Finals.

Forget espn classic, which I don’t watch anyway. We got to see the games live, and it was as much fun as you can really hope to have watching TV, plus we got to crash facebook after every game and celebrate with the community, even though my Mavs fan friends are all over the globe. When Dirk hit a big shot, this series, I was never surprised; when he kept missing during the first half tonight, I never worried about whether he would get his touch back. When he hit 10 points for the fourth quarter *again* tonight, it was just gravy. The missed shot at the end of game 3 was a genuine shock, and that says something about a player.

From here on, everything changes. Next year (if the season happens), we get to just enjoy what comes without all the angst and doubt. Unless the Mavericks can pull off another year like this, other teams will always have longer dynasties and more title banners. But that’s the great thing about a championship: this year is all that matters. For this year, Dirk was the best when the game was on the line. For this year, no deficit was too big to race back from. For this year, not a single team could blow the Mavericks out of a single playoff game. For this year, Terry was fearless (and money) when the biggest games were on the line. For this year, JJ Barea was a crunch-time contributor in the deciding game of the season. For this year, our team was better, and played better.

As my wife posted on facebook tonight, Thank God it’s finally over. I think we can all use a little rest.

On the Line

One of the great things about the playoffs is that you get to see how people play when their backs are to the wall.

One of the best places to see this is when a team is leading the series by a single game (1-0, 2-1, or 3-2), as opposed to when it's tied or when a team is leading by two or three games. The reason is, of course, that the outcome of the game leads to such a big difference: either the series will be tied, or else someone will have a two-game lead, which is tough to overcome.

Now of course, in a game 7 you get to see both teams with their backs against the wall, which is a lot of fun. But I think in games like the one tonight, with Miami leading 2-1, you get to find out something even more interesting abuot who these teams are. What I mean is, at least from a fan’s perspective, the game at 2-1 (like the games at 1-0 and 3-2) means more to the team who’s trailing in the series than it does to the team who’s winning.

A few years back I wrote a post about how the Mavericks under Dirk had won every game 7 (or game 5 in a five-game series) that they had played. (The same is still true today, since they haven’t played any games 7’s since I wrote that post.) That looks impressive, until you reflect that the *best* teams don’t have to play very many game 7’s, because they put away their opponents quickly. So most seasons, when the Mavericks are the better team, it still often takes them the full seven games to finish a series. When they’re the lesser team, they never stretch the series to the limit.

Now let’s go back to the 2-1 series. What we find out tonight is whether Miami is good enough to beat the Mavericks even when Dallas *has* to win the game, while Miami doesn’t. It’s more interesting than a game 7 because we don’t just see who’s better –– we see who wants it more. If Dallas can win big tonight, we’ll know they play well when they’re desperate. But if Miami can win big tonight, we’ll know they can keep their effort up even if they’re not desperate.

However, there’s a catch. If the game is close, luck comes into play. Dirk could have made that shot at the end of game 3, just like he could have missed his layup at the end of game 2. Wade could have hit his desperation heave at the end of game 2, or the refs could have called a phantom foul and given him three shots on the play. These things happen. In other words, this series could easily be 2-1 Dallas or 3-0 Miami, and some of it depends on luck.

So then there’s tonight. Dallas needs the win more, and we’re playing at home. And so I think you really can say, that if Miami beats us convincingly tonight, they’ll prove that they deserve to win the series –– and the resulting 3-1 lead will mean they surely will win the series.

Of course you hope for the blow-out win. It would mean that Miami can be beaten soundly, and not just on a fluke. You willingly settle for another close win (or three more close wins), because even a championship won with a little luck is still a real championship.

But if Dallas loses another close one tonight, it will be extremely hard to swallow as a fan, because it will feel like the series could have swung the other way so easily. If that happened, we would probably lose game 6 in a blowout, and it would look like Miami was simply a lot better, but I don’t think that would necessarily be the case. In a 3-1 series, at least from a fan’s perspective, the trailing team is likely to lose heart, which helps the leading team smell blood and play with more energy to finish them off.

So you worry about the close loss. Then it’s just more “what if” piled on the list with Dirk’s WCF knee injury in 2003, the 2006 Finals, and the Golden State upset. As Mavericks fans, we’ve had enough “what if.”

But what if we win tonight?

All Over Again

Here’s what I wrote tonight during the fourth quarter after the Heat took their fifteen-point fourth-quarter lead. I titled it “All Over Again” because it felt like the loss to Miami in the Finals in 2006:

I think I’m finally convinced: Miami was better than we were in 2006, and they’re better than we are now. It is, after all, a sport, which means that things like speed and strength matter, they’re not incidental.

Why did we lose tonight? Every time we turned the ball over, Miami beat us down the floor for a dunk. When the Heat missed a shot, there were at least three times that Wade was already springing to the rim before he even knew if the shot was going in. At least a couple of times, he got rebound-dunks from it. Jason Terry has basically been shut down these two games, partly because the Heat defenders are taller than he is, and partly because they’re so fast in closing out on shooters that Terry has hardly gotten any open looks. Dirk definitely doesn’t shoot as well when defenders are physical with him. In the regular season, he gets foul calls a big chunk of the time. When the fouls aren’t coming, he still adjusts, be he isn’t as dominant.

So, uh, after the borderline-miraculous comeback and win tonight, I guess what I really meant by “All Over Again” was that it was just like the fifteen-point fourth quarter comeback against Oklahoma City last round. Yeah, that's what I meant.

Rolling the Dice

Okay, so two different ways to tell the “story” of tonight’s game 1 Finals loss.

STORY #1

One is that we hung in there for the first half, but then the Heat shifted gears, buckled down, and put us away.

That’s definitely possible, but I think we could be a little misled by the big Lebron dunks that he put in once the game was mostly over and we were already playing desperate. I’m not saying I’m not worried about those plays, but I think it’s possible they would go down a bit differently if it were a two-point game instead of an eight-point game with a couple of minutes left.

STORY #2

Another way to view the game is that our bench has really been the difference throughout the playoffs, and that bench did not show up tonight. As in, 17 points on 4 of 22 (18%) shooting from Barea, Terry, and Peja.

Someone could point out that the Miami bench didn't play great either, shooting 8 of 22 (36.4%) for 27 points.

The difference is that our bench is a big part of how we got to the Finals. Despite Nowitzki’s brilliance through most of the playoffs so far, Barea, Terry, and occasionally Peja need to show up with big games for us to succeed against good teams. We have gambled by placing heavy stock in the ability of those guys –– especially Barea and Peja –– to make big plays and help us get wins. Now we risk paying the price for placing a lot of weight in players who may have been playing beyond their potential for awhile now.

We didn’t always close great against Portland and Oklahoma City, but we played well enough across the span of the whole game to win those series convincingly, and that overall play included nice contributions from the bench.

So for me, two big questions now are, is Barea really a rotation player for a contender, or just a guy who got hot for a couple of weeks? And, can Peja still hit big shots in big games, or have we already gotten out of him more than we bargained for?

T.E.A.M. ... but I love Jason Kidd

My wife can attest that the two most common things I say during Mavericks games are “Kidd wants the ball” (whenever I seem him run down a loose ball) and “I love watching Jason Kidd play basketball.” I’m the proud owner of a commemorative opening night towel from Kidd’s first NBA game in November 1994, when he missed a triple-double by one rebound, I believe. My brother and I got cheap tickets in the upper deck end zone, and I’ve been in love with Kidd’s game ever since.

It still boggles my mind that the Mavericks let coach Jim Cleamons push to trade Kidd in 1997, and I was a big advocate of getting him back a couple of years ago, even if it did cost us Devin Harris.

Dirk is having a spectacular playoff run this year, but you could the Mavericks’ quality as a team summed up in their last offensive possession, when Jason Kidd came up with a tough offensive rebound after Dirk barely missed a 14-footer, then got the ball back to Dirk to force a Thunder foul and two free throws.

Kidd can’t really be called a star anymore, but he knows how to make winning plays. As much as I love watching Dirk shoot, Kidd’s play may be even more delightful. And in this particular series, he came up big over and over again.

In addition to the big offensive rebound to seal the game tonight, in game 4 Kidd also had the big three-pointer in overtime, plus a steal against Durant with four minutes left and the Mavericks trailing by four. Kidd just grabbed the ball and took it from him, and three seconds later Shawn Marion was scoring at the other end; in overtime, Durant did the same thing to Durant again, stealing the ball from him with a minute left and the game tied. This was actually the *third* time Kidd stripped Durant like that in a key possession in the series––the other one happen with 1:47 left in game 2. Add to that another big offensive rebound with 1:04 left in that game.

I don't know if the Mavericks will beat the Heat in the Finals, but this guy plays like a winner, and he deserves a title. He’s not an all-star anymore, but he plays the right way.

We’ll take it

Looking at the big picture, the outcome of tonight’s game 3 of Mavericks-Thunder doesn’t make very much sense. Dirk and Durant both shot horrible, Jason Terry didn’t have a good game for Dallas, and Russell Westbrook was dominant for the Thunder. Dirk had more turnovers (seven) than his combined rebounds-assists-steals-blocks. And the Mavericks still won on the road.

I suppose it comes down to this: if you shoot 37 percent from the field, including 1-17 three-pointers (which is what the Thunder did), you’re usually not going to win a playoff game.

What it would take

This blog has been obsessed with Dirk Nowitzki over the years, and I think it's justified. Apart from 1988, the Mavericks have had virtually no success as a franchise apart from the years he’s been on the team. And it’s often been noted that this regular season, Dallas was 55-18 with him in the lineup, and 2-7 without him.

2010 PLAYOFFS

I want to look at last year’s playoffs and talk about the Mavericks’ identity as a team, and what Dirk means for them. His numbers for the Spurs series last year were strong (26.5 points and 8 rebounds on 54.7% shooting), but I want to focus on one game––in fact, one quarter––where I think the Mavericks lost the series, and in a sense I think they lost it because of Dirk.

His biggest weakness, in my opinion, is his struggles to make something happen when opponents play rough and he gets angry. I don’t mean angry like his 50-point WCF barrage after Tim Thomas blew him a kiss in 2006, but rather angry like when Bruce Bowen or Udonis Haslem is holding him and shoving him 17 feet from the basket.

If the refs are calling fouls in Dirk’s favor, he can barrel into the lane and get to the free throw line anyway; but when he doesn’t get calls, his angry playing often just ends up in missed shots and turnovers. Or sometimes, he seems to check out of the game completely.

MAVS-SPURS 2010, GAME 3

Consider what happened in game 3 against San Antonio last year. During the third quarter, Antonio McDyess started holding and shoving Dirk every possession, and Dirk lost it. You could see he was angry, shoving back and flailing his arms, trying to get the refs’ attention. He got bullied.

Dallas started the third quarter with a 14-point lead. Dirk’s stats for that quarter? He shot 0/1 FG, 2/2 FT (after being flagrantly fouled), he got 1 rebound, 3 turnovers (including an offensive foul on George Hill), and 1 technical foul. But aside from the numbers, you could see that the Spurs got into his head. When he did get the ball, it was obvious he had no interest in shooting or making a move. He’d catch it and just pass it to someone else on the perimeter.

Dallas’ 14-point lead turned into a 7-point deficit by the end of the quarter. Dallas ended up losing the game by 3.

Dirk wasn’t the only one with a problem that quarter. The whole team only scored 11 points. But on all those possessions where the rest of the team was missing 12 shots and committing 4 turnovers, what they needed was for their best player to take his share of shots and keep his mind in the game. Aside from the fact that Dirk probably would have hit a higher percentage than the rest of the team was hitting that quarter, they needed him taking shots to keep the offense flowing, and to help the team keep a mindset to win with.

AND, THE SERIES?

If Nowitzki had kept his head in the game, it’s easy to imagine a 3-point swing and a win that game for the Mavericks. Then the series goes 7 games, and the Mavericks probably win game 7 at home. Nothing guaranteed, but that first-round series was winnable.

Now, there are two different ways to look at the series. One is that the Mavericks should have won easily, and that saying one quarter swung the series is kind of missing the point. The other way to look at it is, if Dirk were tougher mentally, the Mavericks could have won anyway.

Any of course, you could say the same thing about the 2006 Finals. The officiating in favor of Dwyane Wade was of course a factor there, as was Wade’s brilliance in hitting big shots. But the other main thing going on was that Dirk got bullied by Udonis Haslem and others in that series; and while his numbers were still pretty good, and he had some big moments, the Mavericks needed him to be consistently brilliant. It didn’t quite happen. To put it another way, they could have won even despite the officiating, if Dirk had held it together more consistently.

AND, THE TEAM

And here we see the problem with these Mavericks. Dirk has to play out of his mind for them to win a playoff series, and even then it’s regularly not enough. One bad quarter from Dirk might swing a whole series, if the other team can stick on its game. Put yourself in that position, and imagine if you’d hold up knowing you had to be on your best game for every moment of a seven-game series. I’m sure there are players who can do it, but I’m pretty sure Dirk can’t.

As always, of course, I have to stress that it’s very rare for a single star to have to stay on his best game like that. Shaq and Kobe could take turns being the hero, as could Duncan/Ginobili, Pierce/Allen/Rondo, and most recently Kobe/Gasol. (Remember that last year Kobe shot 6/24 in game 7 of the Finals while Gasol saved the series for the Lakers.)

But for our Mavericks, we’re left with this problem: no one has shown that they’re ready to step up consistently and make big plays if Dirk doesn’t do it. Butler was pretty good in last years’ playoffs, averaging 23 points and 7 rebounds on 44% shooting, but he’s injured now. Terry and Kidd have been erratic in the playoffs recently. And Dirk has a decent amount of mental toughness, but it’s clear he doesn’t have enough to keep things together consistently by himself.

DALLAS-PORTLAND 2011

Dirk will have a lot of good moments against Portland this series, but at some point they’ll start bullying him, and the refs won’t call things in his favor. If Dirk can turn that frustration into strong moves to the basket, Dallas will beat Portland in the series. If Terry and Kidd can step up their games and score consistently, Dallas will win even if Dirk *can’t* get past the physical defense. But if neither one of those things happens, my money is on the Blazers for the first-round upset.

Half-Baked?

I haven’t posted here in almost two years, but the drubbing by the Lakers last night is enough to get a guy thinking.

I should say up front I haven't read anything beyond the espn daily dime for the day, so hopefully I'm not just repeating what everyone else is saying.

My wife and I went to our favorite pizza place to watch the game last night, and fortunately the place closed at 12:30ET so we had to leave before the game got too ugly.  We were dreading it going in, and now it's hard to even care.  The Mavs' play has seriously lagged lately, and some of the Dallas media folks (Mike Fisher and Mark Followill) were analyzing on a podcast the other day who the Mavericks should be more worried about in the first round.  I don't think the Lakers are worried whether they can take Portland or New Orleans.

But what's worse is what I saw last night, and not just the score: Lakers laughing after big plays, Kobe going into overdrive and breaking up a Mavericks fast-break.  And then there's Matt Barnes. He was on the Warriors when they embarrassed Dallas a couple of years back, and last night after Terry almost got in a fight with Steve Blake (?!), Barnes was walking around Terry taunting him.  And what was he saying?  According to Terry, “same thing he's been saying since he played for Golden State, which is a bunch of nothing.” There’s no way I believe Terry on that point.

They're already in our heads, and the playoffs haven't even started.  They're already paving ground to beat us mentally in the second round, if we even make it there.  We could have only lost by 5 last night, and I'd be just as convinced.  Barring a miracle, this team is done.

But were we ever not done?

I’m thinking of the ends of movies where the plot twist hits, and they show you scenes from earlier in the story that you suddenly realize you misunderstood. This is where my mind is going with the Mavericks right now. I'm sure people have outlined all this before, but it’s never hit me quite the way it’s hitting me today.

Flash back to 2003, when the Mavericks beat the Sacramento Kings in game 7 of the second round to go to the Western Conference Finals. (By the way, that was an insanely entertaining playoff series.) Dirk injured his knee in game 3 of those WCF, and the Mavericks lost in 6 after giving the Spurs a run for their money; the Spurs went on to win the title that year. You had to wonder, what if Dirk had been healthy?

But look at it another way: What if Chris Webber hadn't blown out his knee in game 2 of the Sacramento series. Would Dallas have won?

Then look at 2006. Dallas beats the Spurs in 7 games in the second round, then Phoenix in 6 in the WCF. We lose to Miami by 6 in the Finals, partly due to two of the most atrociously-officiated games I’ve ever seen, and partly because we fell apart mentally.

But look at it another way: What if Duncan was completely healthy for San Antonio? (He put up big numbers in those playoffs, but it was a well-known fact he suffered much of that season from plantar fasciitis.) Don’t we think a little extra mobility for Duncan might have swayed game seven in overtime on the road? And what if Amare Stoudemire hadn’t been out for the year for Phoenix? Would we have beaten *either* of those teams?

So what’s left?

Of course, *maybe* we would have won all those playoff series even without the injuries (minor or major) to key players on the other teams.

But consider this: if Webber stays healthy and we lose to the Kings, and if Duncan is healthy and we lose to the Spurs, here's the Mavericks’ playoff history in ten straight 50-win seasons with Dirk:

2001: lost 2nd round
2002: lost 2nd round
2003: lost 2nd round
2004: lost 1st round
2005: lost 2nd round
2006: lost 2nd round
2007: lost 1st round
2008: lost 1st round
2009: lost 2nd round
2010: lost 1st round

The tally: in ten years we have *never* gotten past the second round without the other team's best big man being injured. Our actual record in playoff games over that span: 49–57.

The point of the NBA is entertainment, and the Mavericks have not let me down from that perspective, whether in the regular season or the playoffs. Also, Dirk’s numbers have been stellar in the playoff (as I’ve argued over and over), and that includes the last couple of years. What’s more, we’ve legitimately won plenty of playoff series along the way, so it’s not like a McGrady–type curse or anything.

No, it’s much more mundane. Once we have to compete against the best, we’re just not that good, and it’s looking more and more like we never have been.

And it's on

Mired in comprehensive exams for the next two weeks, I probably won't get to watch hardly a minute of Mavericks-Spurs. But I would like to go on record here with this (not too risky) prediction: Dirk and Terry will probably do fine, but whether the Mavericks win the series will depend on whether Josh Howard plays like an all-star or a head case.

Very Interesting

Here’s something that every critic of Dirk ought to read:

Career Regular Season Averages:
Kobe: 25.0 points, 45.3% FG, 5.3 rebounds, 4.6 assists
Dirk: 22.4 points, 47.1% FG, 8.6 rebounds, 2.7 assists

Career Playoff Averages:
Kobe: 24.2 points, 44.6% FG, 5.0 rebounds, 4.6 assists
Dirk: 25.3 points, 44.7% FG, 11.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists

Career Finals averages:
Kobe: 23.3 points, 41.2% FG, 5.4 rebounds, 4.9 assists
Dirk: 22.8 points, 39.0% FG, 10.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists

Now, obviously Kobe is better than Dirk, and with the game on the line Kobe is perhaps the most valuable player in the NBA, while Dirk usually chokes at the end. However, the stats reveal that Dirk is the one who steps up his game when the playoffs come around, while Kobe slips a little bit when compared with the regular season.

But what’s more than that, people such as my brother criticized the way Dirk played in the Finals a couple of years ago against Miami, because Dirk had a couple of bad games, while Dwyane Wade played phenomenally. But how about this: Kobe Bryant has been the the Finals four times now (before this season), and his Finals numbers are only slightly better than Dirk’s. If Dirk was mediocre for one series, Kobe has virtually duplicated those scoring and shooting numbers over the span of four series.

And for the record, in game one of this year’s Finals, Kobe scored 24 on 9/26 (34.6%), with 3 rebounds and 6 assists.

Anyway, all this points to the argument I’ve tried to make again and again: the only real reason people hate the Mavericks and Dirk is because they lost to Miami. People can talk about how they lost, but the fact is that Dirk’s numbers were just fine, and no one thinks particularly less of Kobe, even though Shaq was the MVP of all three championships Kobe won, and even though Kobe’s numbers in the Finals are only slightly better than the numbers Dirk put up when Dallas lost.

I feel the sting of the losses, and I think criticisms for that are completely fair. What I don’t like are smoke screen arguments, such as criticism of Dirk’s stats. With the game on the line, give me Kobe. But don’t tell me that the Mavericks lost the championship a couple of years ago because Dirk’s shooting percentage was kind of low.

Counting the Stars and Weak Links

Watching tonight's game, I think there was one very obvious reason why the Mavericks couldn't beat the Hornets in this series: the Hornets had two stars, and Dallas only had one. Closely related to this is the sad reality that Chris Paul had a triple-double in the series, and Jason Kidd didn't.

My brother Jeremy will doubtless continue his blaming of Dirk, but the fact of the matter is that Chris Paul--utterly brilliant especially in the first the fourth quarters--was able to relax for large portions of the game, because David West repeatedly hit big shots, even when Paul wasn't setting him up.

Having two stars instead of one makes an enormous impact on a team's offense, because the Hornets could regularly double-team Nowitzki with only minimal fear that anyone else would hurt them. In several cases Dirk (6 assists) found Terry for open shots, and that's a big part of the reason Dallas stayed in the game at all. But Terry can't get his own shot, which means the Mavericks weren't able to stretch the defense as well as the Hornets could.

But Dallas, faced with Paul and West as offensive threats, had few options for forcing the ball out of either of their hands. This amounted to a huge tactical advantage for the Hornets, and it's why they were simply the better team this series.

J-Ho and Stackhouse

The other reason for the disastrous series was the continued lousy offensive play of Josh Howard and Jerry Stackhouse. Both players actually started out game 5 quite well, Howard hitting 4 of his first 5 shots, and Stackhouse hitting 4 of his first 6. Yet 7 of these 8 made shots were layups or dunks. And what's more, after Stackhouse made a jumper with 5:50 left in the 2nd quarter, here is the offensive output the Mavericks got from Stackhouse and Howard combined:

• Howard layup with 7:46 left in the 3rd
  
• Howard jumper in the lane with 10:48 left in the 4th
  
• Stackhouse dunk with 3:41 left in the 4th (a breakaway off a nice pass from Kidd)

All in all, for those last two-and-a-half quarters, Howard shot 2 of 9, and Stackhouse shot 1 of 6. Neither player could hit anything from outside all game: In fact, Howard didn't score a single point outside the lane, and Stackhouse only made one jump-shot. Other than that, every basket for either swing-man was a layup or dunk. I think they each air-balled at least one 3-pointer, and most of their shots weren't even close to going in.

Yet Avery allowed Howard and Stackhouse to continue setting up from outside, and between them they missed their last 8 outside shots, including 5 three-pointers.

With 1:47 left in the game, after Dallas had almost miraculously managed to pull within 8 points, hitting 3-pointers on three consecutive possessions (Kidd, Dirk, and George), Stackhouse inexplicably fouled Paul in the backcourt, which game him two free throws, and then Stackhouse slapped the ball out of Paul's hands, drawing a technical FT. Mercifully, this was Stackhouse's second tech of the game, which means it got him ejected--so at least Avery couldn't leave him in the game to keep missing shots.

What was particularly infuriating about this is that both Howard and Stackhouse have been completely incapable of scoring from outside for the entire series. Both players had scored a few points here and there, but virtually all of them were from layups and free throws. To have both players continue to take these shots in the fourth quarter of an elimination game was unconscionable from a coaching standpoint. Miraculously, the Mavericks almost managed to come back at the end anyway. Imagine what could have happened if these two guys had stopped taking shots they were almost certain to miss.

For the series, then, Howard shot 21/72 (29%) for 12.2 PPG, and Stackhouse shot 12/38 (32%) for 6.2 PPG.

Side-note

For what it's worth, Dirk has never been swept in a playoff series. From what I've seen of the NBA playoffs, a superstar should always be able to get his team one win in a series, however out-matched they are (think: Allen Iverson in the finals against LA). The fact that Dirk has always come away with at least one win suggests that he's done his job: he has often been a superstar on an overmatched team, but only very rarely a playoff no-show. This is why Dirk has career playoff averages of 25.3 points and 11.1 rebounds (on 44.7% shooting, averaging 1.38 points per field goal attempt).

Minutes, Minutes, Minutes

Something to watch for in tonight’s game is whether Avery finally gets over his urge to give useless playing time to Jerry Stackhouse and JJ Barea. (Mike Fisher at dallasbasketball.com has great analysis this week, and he raises and answers a lot of these questions about minutes.) The Mavericks need at least two scorers on the court the entire night, and they already have the minutes to do that -- if Avery has the will to follow through.

Here are the average minutes that have been played by Dallas’ top players so far this series:

• Dirk: 40.8 minutes
  
• Howard: 35.0 minutes
  
• Kidd: 35.0 minutes
  
• Terry: 34.0 minutes

Since I'm not an NBA coach, I welcome someone to correct me if I'm wrong on this, but what jumps out at me is that, between Dirk, Howard, and Terry, that’s only 34 minutes of rest, which means there is no reason for more than one of them to be out of the game at any given time. Which means there is no reason not to have two scorers on the floor for every minute of the game. If Avery just bumped Terry and Howard up to 36 minutes each, he could rest Dirk the last four minutes of the first and third quarters, rest Terry the first six minutes of the second and third quarters, and rest Howard the last six minutes of the second quarter and the first six minutes of the fourth quarter. Or something like that.

Then just make sure that Kidd is in the game all the minutes that Terry is out, and you (1) always have a viable point guard on the floor, (2) always have two scorers on the floor -- that is, assuming Howard remembers how to score at some point, and (3) have all four of your best guys playing together the first six minutes and the last six minutes of the game.

If you figure those 40 minutes for Dirk and 36 each for Kidd, Howard, and Terry, then that leaves 92 minutes for the rest of the team. Then maybe 26 minutes for Dampier, 30 for Bass (at center for the 22 minutes Dampier is on the bench, and at power forward for the 8 minutes Dirk is on the bench), and then 36 minutes for the other swing men: Maybe 16 minutes for Devean George, 12 for Eddie Jones, and 8 for Jerry Stackhouse--always with two other scorers on the court.

Or better yet: I don't know exactly how much rest the 4 stars need, but if you give Dirk, Kidd, Terry, and Howard 40 minutes each for tonight's game (it is an elimination game, after all), then you only need 32 minutes of rest total among the four of them. That means you can have all four guys on the court for the first 8 minutes and the last 8 minutes of the game, and then you have three of the four on the court the entire rest of the game.

That also means you can cut an additional 12 minutes from George, Jones, and Stackhouse -- which would probably mean dropping Jones from the lineup altogether.

Blame J-Ho

I don’t have a lot to say here, except that (1) thank goodness at least Dirk is playing well, and (2) Dallas isn’t going to win a playoff series when both Josh Howard and Jerry Stackhouse have 4 straight awful scoring games.

Howard's lines:

• Game 1: 4/16
  
• Game 2: 3/10
  
• Game 3: 5/16
  
• Game 4: 3/16

Overall, that’s 15/58, or 25.9% field goal shooting for the series. Howard has also made a good number of free throws, so he’s managed 12.8 points per game, along with 6.5 rebounds.

Stackhouse’s lines:

• Game 1: 2/9
  
• Game 2: 4/10
  
• Game 3: 0/2
  
• Game 4: 1/5

Overall, that’s 7/26, or 26.9% field goal shooting for the series. He’s averaged 5 points and 3 rebounds.

Jason Terry’s numbers are somewhat better:

• Game 1: 3/7
  
• Game 2: 5/8
  
• Game 3: 8/18
  
• Game 4: 6/16

Terry’s totals have been 16.5 points on 44.9% shooting, which is pretty close to his season average. His play was impressive for most of tonight.

So here’s the problem: assuming we give Kidd at least a little bit of credit for his 7 rebounds and 6.3 assists (lame for him, but still obviously a valuable contribution), that means that Brandon Bass has been Dallas’ fourth best player this series, after Dirk and Terry, and Kidd. That’s a bad sign for the team, since ideally, Bass should never be better than the fourth best player on the court for the Mavericks at any give time.

I’m actually starting to feel sympathy for Avery Johnson. It should be outrageous to have Devean George (a stiff, in my book) taking 7 shots in a playoff game, except that the Mavericks really don’t have anyone else passable to bring off the bench. In the second quarter, Dallas was running Barea, Stackhouse, George, and Bass alongside Dirk. Nowitzki is a great offensive player, but he’s simply not dominant enough to score a bunch of points when there are four stiffs on the court with him (with apologies to Bass), which means the Hornets don’t have to guard anyone else.

As far as I can tell, for the Mavericks to succeed, they need two solid scorers on the floor at any point in the game. If Howard were scoring like he’s supposed to, Johnson could save Terry for the sixth man, to come in alongside Stackhouse for the second unit. But with Howard playing badly, Dallas needs Terry for the first unit; then with Stackhouse playing badly, Dallas is left without any dependable scorers in the second unit. The result is what we saw tonight: a strong start, followed by a huge drop-off when the bench comes into play.

All this adds up to how the Hornets could win even when Chris Paul didn’t have a great game: tonight, Dallas shot 36% overall, and 3 of their top 5 scorers didn’t show up. That’s essentially been the case for the series so far, so it’s little surprise the Hornets are up 3-1. In theory, the series could still turn around if the Mavericks played according to their talent. Unfortunately, there’s no real reason to think that they will.

Born Losers?

I can’t help seeing irony in a comparison between last season and this one, when we look at how the Mavericks ended their regular season and how they’ve begun the playoffs.

Last year, Dallas was widely criticized for blowing off one of its last regular-season games against Golden State, which helped allow the Warriors to make the playoffs, where they faced and demolished Dallas. It seemed to be bad karma for the Mavericks not to play hard as they finished their season, and it seemed that they were basically paying for that mistake as they lost to a hot Warriors team that bullied them throughout the series.

This year, Dallas came into its last regular season game against New Orleans, in basically the reverse situation. Whereas a win against the Warriors last year would have meant the Mavericks would not have had to face them in the playoffs, a win against the Hornets this year assured that the Mavericks would face them in the first round. This time around, it seemed that the Mavericks got it right: they played hard against the Hornets and beat them, which would seem to build up some good karma going into the playoffs. Right?

The plan seems to have backfired, though. Avery -- whom seems to have lost his ability to win big games as a coach -- trotted out a full-court press that frustrated Chris Paul in that last regular season game, and it did help Dallas build some confidence. Unfortunately, it also allowed the Hornets to adjust before the first playoff game. Whereas you’d really hope to bring out the surprising strategy as an edge to help you win game 1 of the playoff series, Avery unveiled it ahead of time. The result is a strategy that actually worked -- but at the wrong time.

There is one thing in common: in both cases Dallas told the other team that they weren’t afraid to face them in the playoffs. Which is another way to say that Dallas showed disrespect toward the team they would ultimately face in the first round. I’m not sure that necessarily has anything to do with their failure last year and (so far) this year, but it obviously hasn’t helped.

And surely there has to be a certain amount of luck that has gone into the playoff losses these last three years: Dwyane Wade’s parade to the free throw line, Baron Davis hitting half-court shots and falling-out-of-bounds 3-pointers, and Chris Paul hitting identical off-balance buzzer beaters at the ends of consecutive first quarters. These kinds of plays are extremely discouraging for a team -- after all, how can you expect to win when you’re playing against Superman?

Yet once the pattern sets in, it starts to seem less and less like luck. Whereas Dirk was the one playing Superman a couple of years ago, with his 50-point WCF performance against Phoenix (see this pose, where I compare it to a similar LBJ game in last year’s playoffs), this year he’s merely been good (27 point on 11 FG attempts is actually very good, at least on paper), while Paul has been the superhero. But more than that, the Mavericks are getting mediocre play from Stackhouse, Howard, and Terry, plus they’re playing lousy team defense. In the end, it looks like the Mavericks just aren’t very good.

This is ultimate fan hell: when your team does the wrong thing, it blows up in their face. When they do the right thing, it backfires. Bad luck, bad karma, bad effort, or bad coaching: more than anything, it’s just a bad experience for a fan.