Words can hardly describe

What a great game.

This one was surreal for me, not least because I watched the whole thing on video tape after getting home from my Sunday afternoon reading group. Fast-forwarding through timeouts and free throws already changes the feel for the game, but on top of everything else, I can honestly say that I’ve never experienced an end of a game like I did this one.

I should say at the outset that I’ll stand by my claim that this game didn't tell us anything in particular about the Mavericks. I love the win, and 66 wins puts the Mavericks in a different historical category than 65 (now they’re top 10 all-time), so I'm thrilled about that. But even aside from the lack of postseason implications this one had for the Mavericks, Tim Duncan’s absurd ejection late in the third quarter surely gave Dallas a huge advantage.

Duncan got called for his second technical of the game for clapping and laughing at a foul call while sitting on the bench. The showed the whole replay, and he didn’t speak a single word. I'm not sure I've ever seen something like that in my life, and I wonder if it means David Stern phoned in that Dallas needs to win 68 this year.

But even if both teams claimed that the game didn’t mean anything to them, they played as if it did, and I loved it. Some thoughts:

• At halftime, Tony Parker called the game a “great practice for the playoffs” and it was still better than every other game played in the NBA this week.
  
• Avery announced before the game that no one would play more than 26 minutes, and then he caved in probably, oh, half-way through the first quarter. Dirk, Howard, Diop, Terry, and Harris played 37, 37, 34, 32, and 31 minutes. My guess is, Avery was expecting a laid-back game, but the players on both sides had something different in mind.
  
• The crowd in Dallas loved it.
  
• The play after the second Duncan technical, Josh Howard completely threw his body into Fabricio Oberto and got the call against Oberto.
  
• Devin Harris got to the rim whenever he wanted to; at one point he also hit a 3, and then took a charge on the next play.
  
• Jerry Stackhouse hit his shot over whoever was guarding him.
  
• There were hard fouls.
  
• ABC showed big chunks of the game with the sliding camera that lets you see how fast the players are really moving; I don’t know if I want it all the time, but it gives the game a great feel.
  
• Guys on both teams hit their open shots.
  
• The Mavericks contested every Spurs shot at the rim.
  
• Both teams played good defense and scored a lot for most of the game.
  
• Dirk has hit 666 field goals this year. He’s exactly one make over 50% for the season.
  
• There was an 8 second violation on Tony Parker on a normal possession with no one guarding him.
  
• Francisco Elson airballed an open 17-footer.
  
• The Spurs have one guy named Francisco, and another guy named Fabricio. They also got 10 minutes from a guy named Jacque.

And then we get to the end, which I especially enjoyed. Dallas had been down by about 3 for most of the fourth quarter. Then Dirk hits a jumper with 1:15 left to tie it for the first time in the fourth quarter. Then Greg Buckner––Greg Buckner!––strips Manu Ginibili and goes coast to coast for the lead with 50 seconds left. A couple of plays later, Jerry Stackhouse misses 1 of 2 free throws (and the one that goes in barely goes in) with 10 seconds left and a chance to take a 4-point lead. (Sound familar to anyone?)

So there’s 10.8 seconds left, with the Mavericks up three, and the Spurs inbound the ball to Michael Finley, and then –– the screen literally fades to black, after which WCVB-TV meteorologist Dick Albert comes on and explains that Boston is going to receive heavy rains and possible flooding tonight. After a commercial breaks that follows, the 6 o’clock news starts.

I kid you not. The Boston ABC affiliate preempted the last 10 seconds of Mavericks–Spurs in order to start the local news broadcast on time.

And I didn’t care. I was frankly thrilled, and got a good laugh out of it, because I hadn’t thought the game could get any stranger.

Just to make one last point: on the pre-game show Jon Barry repeated a little piece of nonsense that I've heard from about 6 different commentators this year. He said that the Manu Ginobili foul on Dirk on the “last play” of game 7 last year is the only reason the Mavericks beat the Spurs.

Obviously that foul was huge, and based on the replay (the three minute mark on this youtube clip) Dirk is lucky that he didn’t get called for an offensive foul before he got to the rim. Lots of things needed to go right for the Mavericks to win that game, and there was certainly some luck (not to mention favorable officiating) involved.

But the Ginobili foul happened with 21.6 seconds left. If Dirk makes the layup with no foul call, Dallas is within one, they foul the Spurs on the inbounds, and then even if the Spurs hit both free throws, Dallas gets the ball in the exact same position with 20 seconds left.

I can only assume that none of these commentators ever actually watch the replay before they say these things, but honestly––what are they thinking when they say things like that? Dallas gets within one with 20 seconds left, and you say the only reason they won is because there was a foul on the play? There’s no chance Tony Parker hits 2 free-throws and then Jason Terry hits a clutch 3 for the tie? And as for how the game actually played out: what about Manu Ginobili’s missed layup after Dirk’s free throw? And how about the non-call on the last play when Duncan got the offensive rebound and Dirk got credit for blocking Duncan’s shot even though it looked like a hack?

And for crying out loud, how about overtime, when the Mavericks outscored the Spurs 15–7 on 4/6 FG and 7/8 FT? And professional commentators are still saying the only reason Dallas beat San Antonio was because of the Ginobili foul? I even heard Charles Barkley say it a couple of weeks back.

All I can think of is that after someone said it earlier this season, no one checked the replay to make sure it was an accurate assessment of the game’s end, and then everyone else just repeated it as if it were true and obvious.

It’s just one more piece of the national TV sportscaster orthodoxy that has developed for talking about the Mavericks this year: all they care about now is the title; Avery Johnson has really helped them develop a commitment to defense; Dirk and Nash are in a two-man race for MVP, but Dirk gets the nod because Dallas has the better record; Josh Howard has developed into one of the best two-way players in the game; and my favorite: Mark Jackson said tonight that Devin Harris is “probably one of the quickest guards, with the basketball, in the nba.” Glad to see he’ll go out on a limb with something like that.

Why this argument is nonsense

Jemele Hill had an article for espn.com this past week that I think is utter nonsense. For starters, she spends almost half of the article assuming that people want to give the MVP to Dirk because Nash has too many, as opposed to, say, because Dirk has led the Mavericks to one of the best seasons in the history of the NBA.

But anyway, although bashing on a bad argument isn’t that great a use of time in and of itself, Hill’s article gives me the chance to raise some questions about Dirk’s shot at MVP. Here she addresses a typical argument for mvp that she says should be reconsidered:

The MVP should go to the best player on the best team. Generally, I believe this. In the last 25 years, the MVPs have come from teams that have won 50 games or more. But you can't use that as absolute criteria. The Pistons had the best regular-season record in the NBA last year, but voters were correct in not awarding Chauncey Billups the MVP. You couldn't look at the Pistons and discern if Billups really was the most important piece, proving that the best player isn't always on the best team.

This year's Mavericks team poses a similar problem. No question Dirk is a superstar, but is he the real reason the Mavericks have shrugged off last year's NBA Finals meltdown? Or does that credit belong to coach Avery Johnson?

How do people get away with writing this stuff? The Pistons were strikingly abnormal in having a great regular-season record without having a particular player who stood out above the others. That’s why the coaches gave them four all-stars last year, to recognize the value of their team play.

Dirk is precisely the opposite of that. While his teammates are excellent, he is clearly the star of the team. He’s 11th in the league in scoring, and 16th in rebounding––not hugely impressive stats––but more important, he’s 6th in the league in ESPN’s player ratings, which measures all a player’s stats put together. Dallas’ next best is Josh Howard, at 45th. And in Hollinger’s PER rating system, Dirk is even better, ranked second for the season, behind only Dwyane Wade.

Yeah, Josh Howard is hugely important to the Mavericks, but no one in the past 30 years has won 65+ with just a bunch of Josh Howards. And Avery Johnson is something very special, but a coach can’t win 65 games by himself: Phil Jackson didn’t do it except when he had Jordan or Shaq, and Pat Riley didn’t do except when he had Magic. No, to win 65, you have to have a Dirk––he’s clearly the best player on his team, and one of the very best in the league.

What’s more, Dallas isn’t just barely the best team in the NBA. By record, they’re head-and-shoulders above everyone else for the season. San Antonio is playing great, but for the season as a whole they haven’t been anywhere close to Dallas. Phoenix has played extraordinarily well too, but then they lost all those games when Nash was out.

Which brings me to my next point. The poor play of Phoenix when Nash was injured should hurt Nash’s MVP chances, not help them. Just to be clear: the MVP is about achievement––the value you did have for your team––not what you would have done for them if only back spasms hadn’t sidelined you for a week here or there. Isn’t the ability to stay healthy part of a player’s value? Or to put it another way: Nash with back spasms isn’t as valuable as Nash without back spasms would be, right? This isn’t saying Nash is any less of a player, just that the MVP is about the entire season, and the results for the entire season are becoming increasingly clear. If Dallas weren’t there, Nash would probably be MVP; but they are, and he’s not.

So at the end of the day, Dallas––for the season as a whole––really is the better team, by virtue of having won a lot more games than Phoenix. And history bears out (see my previous post) that you don’t win 65 games on a fluke. Maybe Phoenix is playing better going into the playoffs, but for the season Dallas outplayed them. The Mavericks put together the performances necessary to win 65 games, and the Suns (who played just as hard) were unable to.

Which brings us back to the principle that Hill suggests Dirk-supporters are following too rigidly: The MVP should go to the best player on the best team. Obviously she’s right that we shouldn’t follow that rule to a fault. But in this case, Dirk is clearly the best player on clearly the best team. In fact, a situation like this with a clear-cut best player on a clear-cut best team is precisely where the rule she’s attacking is most appropriate to follow.

As I’ve said before, this whole thing is nothing but disrespect due to Dirk’s mediocre play in the finals last year. Even though that’s not really supposed to affect MVP ballots, it’s certainly understandable if it does. But those same people have to defend why Nash has never beaten San Antonio in the playoffs like Dirk’s Mavericks did last year, and why the Suns have never been to the NBA finals, even the year they were totally healthy and had the league’s best regular-season record. That, it seems to me, levels the playing field between these two guys and forces us to focus on this season.

And if this season is the only one in question, then no smokescreen of nonsense arguments should be able to obscure that Dirk should be MVP.

Garbage Time

Dallas left four fifths of a playoff-calibre starting lineup off the floor tonight, and the rest of the roster still managed to blow out the Timberwolves, who were playing without Garnett and who still have a chance to fall behind Sacramento, Portland, New York, and maybe even Charlotte and Seattle for better draft odds, if they can just lose a few more games.

Who do you put in for garbage time (which was most of the second half) when Mo Ager has already played 20+ minutes?

Must have been a painful one to watch, despite the win. Anyone catch it on tv?

In the meantime, Dallas hits 65 wins (see my previous post), a number that has only been matched or topped in the last 30 years by Shaq’s Lakers (once), MJ’s Bulls (three times), Magic’s Lakers (once), Bird’s Celtics (once), and Moses Malone’s Sixers (once). If Dallas wins one more, scratch everyone from that list except the Bulls, Shaq’s Lakers, and the Celtics.

All seven teams won the title that year.

There is nothing left for us here

Here’s a depressing fact: the last time Dallas beat a top-tier team (50-win pace or better) was at Utah on January 9. That’s not entirely their fault, since they’ve only played two games since then against that level of team with that team’s full lineup on the court (both against Phoenix), but Dallas did lose both. So you could say that, aside from an uncanny consistency in beating mediocre and bad teams, Dallas hasn’t shown us all that much in the past three months.

What’s more, with Dallas winning at Portland tonight, their magic number (Dallas wins plus Phoenix losses) for clinching the west is at one. That means the rest of the season should be true coasting. To put it in concrete terms, Maurice Ager played 25 minutes tonight against Portland; Dirk played 26.

And even if the upcoming games against San Antonio and Utah will matter to those teams, they won’t matter much to Dallas. Look for Dirk, Howard, and Terry to average a handful of minutes, and look for pressure to fade away. If Dallas wins against those teams, it still won’t be because they needed to. Whatever happens from here on out, it isn’t likely to tell us anything about the team.

Watching the way the Mavericks have played lately, with narrow victories over Sacramento, New York, and Milwaukee, plus last night’s loss to the Nuggets––and all of it with Dirk’s stats slipping––it’s hard to know what kind of Dallas team will show up for the playoffs. So as fans who want to take the pulse of our team daily, we pretty much have to wait until April 21 before we get any new data. For me, it’ll be a long two weeks.

It seems to me, the playoffs are going to be an entirely new season for this team. Momentum, unless they win their last 8 in a row, probably isn’t going to be a factor, which suggests Dallas will have to play themselves back into team form during their first-series round, hopefully against the Clippers rather than the Warriors.

The goods news is, this is the same personnel that are now 63–13, so if you’re looking for a group capable of getting their act together, this is the one. They’re still angry about last years playoffs, they’re still the group (most of them) that won game 7 on the road against the Spurs in last year’s playoffs, and they’ve still got Dirk and his career playoff averages of 25.7 points (currently on the top-10 all-time list) and 11.1 rebounds.

Negativity

Just to mix things up, instead of saying positive things about the Mavericks, tonight I’m going to say a bunch of negative things (none of them particularly new or original) about the next best two teams in the league––who played each other in San Antonio tonight (the Spurs won 92–85).

Truehoop had a post today about how any real nba fan likes to watch the Suns play. My money says no one enjoyed watching them play the Spurs tonight. Halfway through the fourth, Bowen got a technical after Nash clubbed him and drew blood but Bowen got called for the foul. Steve Kerr commented, “That might have been the most exciting play of the game.”

The Spurs whine more than any team in the league. Bruce Bowen and Manu Ginobili sandwiched James Jones and threw him to the ground on a loose ball, after which both of them did the bit where they hold their hands out and look at the ref in disbelief when they heard the whistle.

Steve Nash pushes off all the time when he’s dribbling.

When Bowen guards a player face-to-face on the perimeter, he puts his entire body up against theirs with his arms outstretched around them; if everyone was allowed to do that, the game couldn’t be played.

Boris Diaw is my least favorite player in the nba. To my mind, he's the stereotypical frenchman with the perpetual sneer and utter contempt for everyone else on the court. Not that all french people are like that; Tony Parker, from what I can tell, is one of the classier players in the league.

Michael Finley has exactly one move. You know the one.

Raja Bell is a jerk.

With about four minutes left in the game, the Spurs’ offensive execution disappeared, and the Suns looked scary for the first time all game.

With two minutes left and the Spurs with the ball, Phoenix intentionally fouled Duncan to put him on the line. Duncan missed both, but he got a huge block against Barbosa the next time down the court.

With 55 seconds left in the game and the Suns trailing by five, Nash tried an awkward bounce pass between the legs of Tim Duncan. The ball made it through cleanly, but it completely surprised Amare Stoudemire, who turned just in time to watch it go out of bounds. The next time down the court, trailing by seven with 30 seconds left, Nash missed a wide-open 3-pointer. In addition to the late turnover, followed by the missed shot, Nash finished the game 6 of 14 for 20 points, just 7 assists, 4 rebounds, and 6 turnovers.

So by the standards Dirk is typically held up to, Nash can’t win the mvp now, since he had a mediocre overall performance and choked at the end of a big game. And it was a big game: the Suns’ lead over San Antonio is down to two games, and the Spurs have the tie-breaker.

After the game, Charles Barkley declared the Spurs the best team in the league, because they play the best defense and also rebound, but Kenny Smith made a nice point in response: he said that the Spurs match up well against Phoenix, the Suns match up well against Dallas, and the Mavericks match up well against San Antonio. So it depends who you play.

That’s a little bit of an exaggeration, but it works in the Mavericks’ favor for what it’s worth: Phoenix will probably get knocked off by the Spurs in the second round, which would put the preferable opponent of the two (the Spurs) in the Mavericks’ playoff path. I think Jeremy’s going to say I’m crazy to prefer playing San Anotonio over Phoenix, but we’ll see.

The most important thing about tonight’s game: Dallas is now 6.5 games ahead of Phoenix with a magic number of two.

Have the Mavericks already peaked?

As depressing as Sunday's loss was, I feel justified in pointing out that Dallas has still won 9 of their last 10 (90%), 26 of their last 29 (89.7%), 34 of their last 38 (89.5%), and 47 of their last 52 (90.4%).

The idea of peaking too early is obviously still scary after Detroit's meltdown in last year's playoffs following their 64 regular-season wins. But these numbers suggest that if Dallas already peaked, their drop-off has been exceedingly slight. And, of course, the slight drop-off is when compared to the best run in the history of professional sports. So we shouldn't worry too much about Dallas yet. (Worry about Amare, perhaps, but don't worry about Dallas.)

To come at it from another angle, it's true that Dallas wasn't able to match their undefeated February with an undefeated March. (See my earlier post for their month-by-month record.) However, they did finish out March at a healthy 13-2 (86.7%), which means you could say that for the past two months they averaged one loss per month.

To move to another point, if the best thing that's happened to the Mavericks in the past month is the distance they've gained on Phoenix in the standings, the second best thing that's happened is the distance the Spurs have placed between themselves and the Jazz. The thought that San Antonio could take care of Phoenix in the playoffs without Dallas ever having to see them is extremely appealing to me. If you'd hate to get beat by the Spurs in the playoffs, you'd really hate to get beat by the Suns.

Getting angry

5:48pm ET
Remember last season in the playoffs when Tim Thomas blew Dirk a kiss, and Dirk went off for 50 points? Well, he just got undercut by Shawn Marion on a jump-shot, and he looks pretty angry. My money says, with Dallas down 10 and seven minutes left, here’s where we’ll find out what he’s made of––if he gets back in the game.

6:39pm ET
And...Dirk did, basically, absolutely nothing. A couple of offensive rebounds, a couple of missed shots, and a little bit of hobbling around the court. His sprained ankle was a nice complement to Josh Howard’s busted forehead, as the Suns literally added injury to insult.

And whatever you think of Dirk’s awful shooting game (21 points on 6/18 with 6 rebounds and 6 assists), Dallas has a far scarier statistic to reckon with: in their past two games, Stoudemire and Marion have combined to shoot 41 of 54 (75.9%) against the Mavericks.

Last game, Dallas made up for their porous defense and mediocre shooting with 27 offensive rebounds, miraculously taking the game down to the wire in overtime despite a huge deficit in field goal percentage. Today the rebounding was even, and Dallas didn’t have a prayer.

Just for kicks, here are the Suns’ player-by-player field goals today, from best to worst:

Marion: 8/10 (80%)
Stoudemire: 10/13 (76.9%)
Diaw: 6/9 (66.7%)
Nash: 7/11 (63.6%)
Barbosa: 10/17 (58.8%)
Jones: 2/4 (50%)
Bell: 3/7 (42.9%)

So seven different Suns shot, and only Raja Bell hit fewer than 50%. And Bell’s makes were all 3-pointers, which means he still managed 9 points on just 7 shot attempts.

You can’t really even say that any of the Suns was particularly dominant; everyone on the team scored more or less whenever they wanted. And it wasn’t just off assists from Nash (who had a less-than-gaudy 11); Amare and Diaw posted up one-on-one and regularly got layups.

Dallas put up some nice numbers themselves for most of the game to stayed competetive, but it’s obviously a rare night that anyone can beat the Suns without getting stops.

The only consolation I can see is that Dampier, who had 11 offensive rebounds the last time these teams played, was out of the lineup. That left Dallas with only DeSagana Diop, which meant they played 22 minutes without a true center in the lineup. A lot of the easy buckets Amare and Diaw got were on mismatches agains the likes of Jason Terry. But they also scored easily enough when Diop was in, so that hardly explains away the problem.

Here’s my thought: maybe if the two teams meet in the playoffs, Kevin Willis––who has the biggest biceps in the history of the NBA––will break Amare’s arm going for a block; if Dallas doesn’t figure something out defensive––or else utterly dominate the offensive boards––that might be their best shot at beating these guys.