One Crazy Recap

A few signs suggest that the Mavericks-Suns matchup this Sunday might not be as exciting as we would have hoped. The first is that Avery is considering benching both Dirk and Howard with ankle sprains tonight against New York, and based on the way he's talking, we might not be surprised if he sits them against Phoenix as well. After all, Dallas’ seven-game lead over the Suns with 11 left to play appears safe enough that Avery can avoid giving Phoenix a chance to gain any psychological momentum over the Mavericks with a hard-fought win this weekend.

On top of that, the recap of the Suns’ loss to Golden State last night might suggest that they aren’t sweating the rest of the season either.

Three points in the story caught my attention.

First, the article picked on Phoenix for their porous defense: “And with every open shot the Phoenix Suns allowed, the Pacific Division champions exposed what's probably their biggest flaw heading into the postseason.”

While that may be true (especially since they showed the same problem in losing to Sacramento the other night), this is essentially the same kind of thing people were thinking about the Mavericks after their loss to the Warriors. It was a bad night for Phoenix, but Golden State is one of those teams that gets hot once in awhile. No sense in blowing this loss out of proportion.

Second, I love this quote and comment about Don Nelson: “ ‘It doesn't matter that we almost blew a lead,’ said Nelson, who used his league-high 36th different starting lineup. ‘The only thing that is important is that we got a win that we needed against a good team.’ ” Huge offensive bursts? (the Warriors scored 45 in the first quarter.) Blown leads? 36 starting lineups in one season? Does any of this sound familiar to any Mavericks fans?

A third point may just bust the balloon of what could have shaped up to be a great game this weekend. D'Antoni watched his bench overcome almost all of a 25-point second-half deficit, but even as it got close in the final minutes, he didn’t bother to put Nash, Marion, or Stoudemire back in. His quote after the game was patronizing and telling:

We've got to be a little careful," Suns coach Mike D'Antoni said. "They're fighting for the eighth spot, and we're not. Sure, we're trying to stay ahead of San Antonio, but when they come out like that and have that juice, and the crowd is behind them, it would have been hard for anybody."

For a coach who had just conceded a late-season loss to a bad team, I take the comment as an admission that the Suns aren't sweating the rest off the season. This seems odd since home-court advantage against the Spurs is at stake (with the Suns up only two games), but otherwise it’s hard to explain leaving Nash on the bench after calling a time-out with a minute left and his team trailing by only six.

The really depressing thing about this is that the Suns are the only reason Dallas has for, well, trying the rest of the season. Granted, Avery wants to keep the team in good playing form, but sitting key players in a game or two might be in his plans for preparing for playoff action.

If this is the case, 70 wins is looking like a remote possibility. Which means that all we have to look forward to are the playoffs. I feel nervous already.

What two-game losing streak?

The Hawks game today wasn’t televised in Boston, so here’s my box score analysis. It doesn’t look like the Mavericks made it very easy on themselves, completely blowing a 20-point lead before getting the win. A few gaudy stats from the game:

• Dirk, Howard, and Terry combined for 83 points (28/28/27) on 29/46 (63%) FG. Of the three, Dirk had the worst shooting performance, hitting only 10 of 17. Unfortunately, however, the Mavericks’ top three logged 41, 39, and 39 minutes, a heavy workload for the fifth game of a six-game road trip and a game against a bad team.
  
• The Hawks shot 49 free throws (making 40) on 32 Mavericks fouls. That’s an average of 3.6 fouls for each of the 9 Mavericks who played at least a full minute.
  
• Jason Terry had 3 steals but 8 turnovers.
  
• Devin Harris, after big offensive showings in three of the last four games (22/17/18), only managed 6 points today; however, he still managed to fill his share of the box score with 6 assists, 4 steals, 3 rebounds, only 1 turnover…and 6 fouls.

Perhaps the biggest news today for the Mavericks is that Phoenix lost to the Kings this afternoon. Mike Bibby scored 35 and hit 9/12 three-pointers, including two in the last couple of minutes to seal the win. Phoenix dropped to 52–17, which sets them on a pace to win a modest (for them) 60.8 games.

More importantly, Phoenix is now six full games behind Dallas with 13 to go for both teams. That means Dallas (58–11) only needs an 8–5 record to guarantee the top seed in the west. If Dallas can win their next three against the Hornets, Bucks, and Knicks (combined 86–120 record), then a win at Phoenix on April 1 could make for their fourth separate double-digit win streak this season. Plus, it would clinch the tie-breaker for Dallas over Phoenix and reduce the Mavericks’ magic number for clinching the west over Phoenix to 2.

So now, riding a 6-game win streak, the Mavericks’ win streaks for the season are 17, 13, 12, 8, 6, 1, and 1. Since Dec. 13 they have won 44 of 48 (91.67%), or 11 of every 12 games for the past 101 days. Since Nov. 9 their rate is not much worse, having won 58 of 65 (89.2%). Current pace overall is 68.96 wins.

Staring into the Void

Going to the Mavericks–Celtics game Friday night at the Banknorth Garden (how badly do I wish the Celtics still played at the original Garden?), it was interesting to see someone wearing a Celtics Jersey with “Durant” on the back. It really showed how sad things have gotten for Boston, that the best thing for Celtics fans to get excited about is losing games so they can get a top draft pick for the future.

It also highlights something remarkable about this year’s Mavericks: not only are they not thinking about future draft picks, but when the whole lineup is healthy, it’s difficult to even point to a place where they would want to improve. Sure Austin Croshere has his problems, but then how good do you need your tenth man to be?

All this leads to the awful predicament that the Mavericks find themselves in.

Let me start with an interview Bill Simmons did a few months back with Malcolm Gladwell, a bestselling author who is especially interested in why people do what they do. One of the questions he takes on is, “Why don't people work hard when it's in their best interest to do so?”

The (short) answer is that it's really risky to work hard, because then if you fail you can no longer say that you failed because you didn't work hard. It's a form of self-protection. I swear that's why [pro golfer Phil] Mickelson has that almost absurdly calm demeanor. If he loses, he can always say: Well, I could have practiced more, and maybe next year I will and I'll win then. When Tiger loses, what does he tell himself? He worked as hard as he possibly could. He prepared like no one else in the game and he still lost. That has to be devastating, and dealing with that kind of conclusion takes a very special and rare kind of resilience.

Even though, as the commercials say, there’s always next year, looking at this season’s Mavericks suggests that next year can’t get a whole lot better. As an organization this season, it seems that the Mavericks have literally done their best, putting together an almost perfect season with a well-balanced team that has already tied or set records for most wins in a 45-game span and in a 55-game span. It’s hard to imagine them preparing more thoroughly or performing more successfully.

That’s why Dirk loses sleep when the Mavericks lose to Phoenix. He can’t say the rest of his team wasn’t good enough, like Lebron might say after a loss if he were really honest; Dirk probably has both the best teammates and the best coach in the league. And he can’t say that he just needs to work more on his game, because he practices harder than most and has improved year after year; at 28, he’s at the age where most players hit their prime, and it’s hard to see his individual game improving much in the coming seasons. Dirk can’t say that his team lacks experience, because last year’s run through to the finals (through San Antonio and Phoenix) shows otherwise. And if he’s tempted to tell himself that the team just needs more time together, the Mavericks’ gaudy 57–11 record ironically suggests instead that they are at their ceiling.

Or Dirk might be tempted, if Dallas loses in the playoffs to Phoenix or San Antonio, to say simply that the competition was even more extraordinary, and that losing to them is no real disgrace. But as good as the Suns and Spurs are, both teams are flawed––San Antonio with its aging lineup and Phoenix with its poor defense. Dallas is younger than the one and better balanced than the other.

All of which means, if the Mavericks lose this season, both Dirk as an individual and the team as a group have no real excuse except that their best wasn’t good enough. As Gladwell points out, that is truly a terrifying prospect, and there aren’t many people who have the nerve to face it.

Coming up Roses

You know, at the Garden. Get it?

Sweet! (only) Sixteen . . .

Notes and thoughts after the win over NY:

The Cavs lost to the Bobcats tonight, which you have to figure Lebron isn’t going to be very happy about. He managed 37 points, but he only shot 12/31 (38.7%), which (to put it in perspective) is just barely better than Adam Morrison’s percentage for the season. So we should probably expect James to explode against Dallas.

On the other hand, let’s remember that Cleveland just lost to the Bobcats.

As the season winds down, JKnott sent me an email recently about the Mavericks’ seasons series against different teams, and I thought I'd check on where they stand now. Since Dallas beat Detroit and New York this week, Utah and the Clippers are the only teams remaining with a chance to join Golden State in winning the season series against Dallas this year. Those two teams, along with the Spurs and Suns, are the only teams who still might join the Warriors in beating Dallas twice.

It’s hard to deny that Dallas has had some very good luck related to other teams’ injuries. In addition to Phoenix losing 3 games in a row when Nash sat out with a bad back, here are the breaks Dallas has caught in just their past 14 games: they played Houston before they got Yao back, Miami just after Wade got injured, Cleveland without Larry Hughes, the Lakers just before they got Odom back, Detroit without Chauncey Billups, and now New York missing half of their best six players (who total an average of 42.1 points, 21.2 rebounds, and 8.5 assists).

What’s really important is that Dallas kept its focus and won all of those games (unlike, say, Phoenix who lost to Detroit even after Billups went down). But still, those six games were presumably all a lot easier than they would have been otherwise.

If the Nuggets would suddenly go on, say, a ten-game losing streak, then Dallas would have a chance to go the whole season without losing a single game to a non-playoff team in either conference. I wonder if any team has ever actually done that before?

Current pace: 68.3 wins.
To clinch the west: 12–4.
To win 65: 10–6.
To win 61 (new franchise record): 6-10.

And 70 wins, though improbable, could still happen.

Sizing up the Competition

After a week of drama and worrying, we're back where we started. San Antonio and Phoenix each had a two-game losing streak to match Dallas’ (see my comments on the Suns’ losses), and the Mavericks’ lead in the standings appears safe again. So what does Dallas need to do to win the first seed?

Well first of all, since Phoenix is five games back in the loss column, Dallas obviously could clench by losing four or fewer games, meaning they would go 14-4 at worst for the rest of the season. If Dallas beat Phoenix April 1, then the Mavericks would gain a game in the standings and win the tie-breaker against Phoenix, which means they would only need to go 11-6 in the rest of their games (finishing at worst 65-17) to win the first seed.

But like Dallas, Phoenix can win lots of games in a hurry. And if they did––and if Dallas struggled for some reason––things could get tight, and tie-breakers could matter.

If Phoenix beat Dallas April 1, then the season series would be tied, and the tie-breaker would shift to the team with the best record against the western conference. So far Dallas is 33-8 against the west, Phoenix 25-11. Because Phoenix has a lot more games left against the western conference (in fact all 16 of their remaining games are against the west), it's a big stretch to predict how this tie-break would turn out. Assuming a loss to Phoenix on April 1, Dallas would have to win 9 of the other 10 games against the west to guarantee the tiebreak. But if Dallas played that well they'd almost certainly win the conference outright anyway (remember, they only need to go 14-4 overall), so it probably doesn't matter.

The next tie-break (if Dallas and Phoenix finish with the same record against the west) is record against western conference playoff teams; right now Dallas is 14-7, Phoenix 10-8. But those numbers could change depending on whether Golden State holds on to the eighth playoff seed, so they're also not worth worrying too much about.

Looking at the rest of the games for both teams:

Overall Dallas has 18 games left with 12 on the road, and Phoenix has 16 games with 8 on the road. Phoenix plays all 16 against the west, while Dallas plays 11 against the west, 7 against the east.

However, Dallas does get Utah and San Antonio at home, whereas Phoenix has to play both of them on the road. Dallas, however, has to play at Phoenix, as well as at Detroit and Cleveland as a part of a 6-game road trip, and then at Denver. So Dallas appears to have six tough games left: Spurs, at Suns, Jazz, at Nuggets, at Pistons, and at Cavs. Phoenix’s top opponents are perhaps just barely tougher: Mavericks, at Spurs, at Jazz, at Rockets, Denver, Lakers, and at Lakers.

Just to keep things in perspective, Dallas could lose every game remaining against a current playoff team, and if they won the rest they'd still finish 64-18. In that case, Phoenix would have to finish 15-1 to take the top seed.

So if Dallas loses the top seed, it will be the least of their worries. Basically, the only thing that could stop the Mavericks from finishing the season with the league's best record would be a free-fall into medocrity that would appear to dash our title hopes anyway.

Incidentally, right now nba.com has the Spurs listed as the 4 seed behind Utah, even though the Spurs have the better record. I thought they were supposed to fix that this year, so that it can't be in Houston's best interest to drop from the fifth to the sixth seed so they can draw a team with a worse record in the first round. It also would mean, of course, that Dallas would have the best record but still have to play the #2 and the #3 team to get to the finals. Anyone know what's going on there?

Take a deep breath

It's true it was only the Celtics, but still it’s nice to see Dirk take what was shaping up to be a disastrous performance and turn it into 30/12/4 on 50% shooting. In about 13 minutes of playing time starting with 3:41 left in the third, Dirk went for 26 points and 7 rebounds on 8/10 FG and 10/11 FT. His 13-footer sealed the win by giving Dallas a 5-point lead with 4.8 seconds left.

As to the other night, I don't find it that hard to forgive the missed free throws and the missed jump shots at the buzzer––those things just happen sometimes, and Dirk hits the big free throws at the ends of games far more than he misses them. (Buzzer-beating field goals are another matter.) Besides, Dirk came up with huge defensive plays and rebounds at the end of both overtimes that kept Dallas in the game. And for all his heroics, Nash missed a shot in the last 40 seconds of each overtime (the first blocked by Dirk!) that would have practically sealed the win for his team. Turns out no one's perfect.

What scares me about Dirk is the late tech, which means not only that he gave Phoenix an extra point with two minutes left in double OT, but also that he was running down the court yelling at a ref when he should have been getting back to play defense.

In appropriately symbolic fashion, Dirk’s 11/28 shooting against Phoenix dipped him just under (as in, 2 FGM under) 50% shooting for the season. My hunch is, if it’s back above 50% after Detroit, Dallas will have won that game.

The latest numbers on what is still a dream season:

• Current winning pace is 68 games, a total Phoenix (since they lost tonight to the Pistons) can’t get to even if they finish out undefeated.
  
• Dallas has still won 39 of 43 (90.7%).
  
• Not counting the current one-game streak (no way to know how long it will go), Dallas’ average win streak for the season is an astonishing 8.8 games.
  
• Dallas can top their best record in franchise history by finishing just 8–10.

Clearly, Sunday’s game at Detroit will be an(other) important test.